Here’s who has the edge in the Stanley Cup Finals between Dallas and Tampa Bay
The Dallas Stars won both games against the Tampa Bay Lightning during the regular season, in overtime, which now is worth slightly more than a pair of seats on the glass to an April home game.
Whatever happened during the NHL’s regular season is just about irrelevant, save for the fact that both of these teams were two of the best before the NHL hit its pause button.
The Lightning in the Stanley Cup Final is not a surprise. The Dallas Stars skating for a title is. This is the first time in NHL history two teams from the Sun Belt will play in the Stanley Cup Final, so, of course, it’s being played in Edmonton, Alberta, in front of no one.
This is the first time the Stars have been in the Cup Final since 2000.
FORWARDS
Tampa Bay Lightning
Because of the overtime periods they have played thus far, Tampa has played three additional games in the playoffs. This is an injured team.
Steven Stamkos is Tampa’s most effective scorer, but he’s out with an injury. He’s staking, and not playing. Even if he does return, don’t expect much.
Center Brayden Point appears to be playing through something, but he does have nine goals in the postseason.
The problem player is winger Nikita Kucherov. He has 26 points in the playoffs, and is a special talent in 5-on-5 or the power play. He was the NHL MVP in 2019 for a reason, and is the best player on the ice.
He’s not a top-line guy, yet, but Blake Coleman is the type of player who can win a playoff game. He’s not expected to score, but can; the product from Plano, Texas has 10 points in the postseason.
Coleman, along with Patrick Maroon, make a second, or third, line dangerous.
Left wing Alex Killorn and Tyler Johnson, both big contributors in the regular season, have done little in the postseason.
What this team does do well is choke another team’s offense, and is as defensively responsible as any group in hockey.
Dallas Stars
Jamie Benn, Alexander Radulo and Tyler Seguin receive most of the pub, but this team is in the Final because its depth.
This is not a high-scoring team, and it doesn’t play that way. The Stars do have scorers who can score, and veterans who know exactly what to do.
Radulov is the best free-agent signing of the Jim Nill era. Joe Pavelski is not receiving his just due as the real captain of this team, either.
Young guys like Denis Gurianov, who hit the game winner to win the West Finals, has high-end skill. Joel Kiviranta, who scored the hat trick to win Game 7 of the semifinals against Colorado, is the type of player who wins playoff games.
Benn is no longer the night-in, night-out player that he was; his body won’t allow it. But as witnessed in the Stars’ Game 5 win over Vegas in the West Finals, he can call on it when needed.
Don’t be surprised if Pavelski wins a game. When he left San Jose in the offseason, he considered two teams: Dallas, and Tampa. He came to the Stars to win this series.
The concern is Seguin. He is not scoring, and something is either wrong, or his game is simply not made for the playoffs.
Edge: Tampa
DEFENSEMEN
Tampa Bay Lightning
Victor Hedman has 15 points in these playoffs, leads the team in ice time and his nine goals are three shy of a playoff record. If Tampa wins the Cup, Hedman will be in the discussion for the Conn Smythe Trophy.
The other top d-man, Kevin Shattenkirk, is your adult in the room who has been around, and around.
The pair to watch, though, is Ryan McDonagh and Erik Cernak. They don’t have a lot of stats, but they are typically assigned to chase the other team’s top forwards.
That pair is a big reason why Tampa made it this far.
Dallas Stars
The Stars are in the Stanley Cup Finals because of their defensemen, and specifically Miro Heiskanen and John Klingberg.
Heiskanen has the look of young Nik Lidstrom. He does everything well, makes everyone better, and he makes it looks as hard as brushing teeth.
Heiskanen leads the Stars with 22 points, and with Klingberg no back end in hockey has as much skill.
There is a drop after that pair, but former highly touted prospect Jamie Oleksiak has developed into a nice, second-tier defenseman. He’s big, and responsible, but he’s not dynamic.
Edge: Stars
GOALIES: Both goalies were once backups to Ben Bishop, the guy who should be in net for the Stars. Bishop, who played in Tampa from 2012 to ‘16, has been limited to four periods, and two starts, in these playoffs.
His backup, Anton Khudobin, has carried them. He beat Vegas in the West Finals by himself.
“What he’s done is phenomenal,” former NHL goalie and current NBC NHL analyst Brian Boucher said. “He’s been the biggest surprise of any one player in the Western Conference.”
Khudobin’s numbers are not going to stop you; he has a 2.62 goals against average. He’s athletic, unafraid, and now is the hot goalie opposing teams hate.
Tampa Bay’s Andrei Vasilevskiy, a former first-round pick, has a 1.82 goals-against average. The only thing he’s done is not steal a game, because Tampa has not asked him to.
What he has done is play every second of the playoffs.
Khudobin is a career backup whereas Vasilevskiy was drafted to be, and is, a No. 1.
Edge: Lightning
COACHING: There are few better stories in these Finals any more charming than the Stars’ Rick Bowness, who remains on the interim tag. He took over for Jim Montgomery on December 10, and the Stars steadily improved, and have taken off since the start of the playoffs.
Bowness of the Stars actually coached with Tampa Bay’s Jon Cooper for five years.
At this point, coaching plays a role, but will not decide a series.
“It’s very important and it’s all about feel and putting guys in the right situation,” NBC NHL analyst Eddie Olczyk said. “Nobody is healthy at this time. ... As far as stylistic play and your DNA, you are going to play the way that got you to this point.”
Edge: Stars
PICK: The Stars have been building towards this for years, and are simply rolling. Tampa has the better team, but injuries are injuries.
The Stars have defeated the two best teams in the West, and they will do so in the East: Stars in 6.
This story was originally published September 19, 2020 at 5:00 AM.
