Let’s have a real conversation about Dallas Cowboys coaches’ records on 4th down
Part of the joys of being Mike McCarthy, at least for another week, is that anything he does will be perceived as the polar opposite of Jason Garrett, even if the two in many areas are mostly the same.
Take for example the moment the Dallas Cowboys failed to convert a fateful fourth down in their Week 1 loss to the L.A. Rams; calls to defend the new coach immediately surfaced.
The Cowboys trailed by three points with 11:46 remaining in the game, and had a 4th-and-3 from the Rams’ 11-yard line.
If they kick the short field goal, conventional wisdom would suggest that the game is tied. Instead, Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott’s pass to rookie receiver CeeDee Lamb was completed for two yards.
The Cowboys never came close to scoring again, and lost by three.
But, “at least they went for it.” Because the guy with the red hair never had the stuff to do it.
As the Cowboys trotted to the sideline, Bob Sturm of Sports Radio 1310 The Ticket fame Tweeted, “You wanted a coach who goes for it on 4th down? You got one. He will and he does. But, sometimes it doesn’t work.”
BEWARE: The following contains a lot of numbers. But they are easily digested.
Of the dozens of criticisms made of Jason Garrett over the years as the head coach of the Dallas Cowboys, one of the constants was that he was too conservative; that punting and long field goal tries were his true loves.
While JGeezy did favor his long Dan Bailey field goal attempts, Garrett eventually came around on fourth downs. Just like McCarthy.
Garrett was the full-time head coach of the Cowboys from 2011 to 2019, and in that time the team attempted 114 fourth down plays in the regular season.
The “Dez Bryant ‘The Catch?’” game in the 2014 NFC Divisional playoffs, was a 4th-and-2.
If you look at the early years of Garrett’s teams, such calls were as comfortable as a porcupine coat.
Between 2011 and 2014, the Cowboys ranked among the bottom of the NFL in fourth-down attempts. In 2013 and 2014, they were 31st in the NFL.
Then something changed in 2014.
It is not a coincidence that Garrett started to go for it as the studies showed that the percentages favored offenses that attempted fourth down. The fourth down numbers across the NFL climbed.
In 2018, the Cowboys ranked sixth in the NFL with 21 fourth-down attempts.
In Garrett’s first five seasons as the full-time head coach, the Cowboys tried 49 fourth-down plays. In his final four seasons, they went for it on fourth down 65 times.
How does this all compare to Mike McCarthy’s 12-year run as the head coach of the Green Bay Packers?
There is a gap. It is not big.
McCarthy was the full-time head coach of the Packers from 2006 to 2017. He was fired 12 games into the 2018 season.
From 2006 to 2017, the Packers went for it on fourth down 178 times. That’s an average of 14.6 fourth-down attempts per season.
The Cowboys under Garrett averaged 12.6 fourth-down attempts per season.
From 2009 to 2014, the Packers’ fourth-down attempts ranked 31st, 21st, 31st, 19th, 19th, and 27th, in those respective seasons.
Like Garrett, something changed with McCarthy around 2014.
In 2015, the Packers’ 21 fourth-down attempts ranked first in the NFL. In 2017, they led the league with 28 fourth-down attempts.
Like any statistical example, don’t just follow the numbers to indict, or praise, a play call. A variety of factors influence these numbers.
For instance, on Sunday night the Cowboys attempted three fourth-down plays. In 2013 and 2014, the Cowboys attempted six fourth-down plays in both seasons.
On Sunday, all fourth-down plays came in the fourth quarter, and they all came with the Rams leading 20-17. The first was a choice, while the second and third were necessities:
▪ 11:46 left to play, 4th-and-3 from Rams’ 11: Dak Prescott 2-yard pass to CeeDee Lamb. Turnover on downs.
▪ 00:56 left to play, 4th-and-1. from Cowboys’ 30: Zeke Elliott 4-yard run. First down.
▪ 00:13 left to play, 4th-and-20 from the Cowboys’ 24: Dak Prescott incomplete pass. Turnover on downs.
History says that if Jason Garrett was the Cowboys head coach last Sunday night with 11:46 remaining in the game, they kick the field goal and take the tie ... And they lose later.
Mike McCarthy will go for it on fourth down, but make no mistake that his proclivity to do so is not that much greater than that of his predecessor.
This story was originally published September 17, 2020 at 5:00 AM.
