Texas Rangers

Prospectus projections short sell Texas Rangers again

The 2017 predictions are beginning to trickle in and one of them projects both good and bad news for the Texas Rangers.

Baseball Prospectus’ projected final standings have the Rangers finishing third in the American League West behind the Astros and Mariners. That’s the bad news. The good news? They have the Rangers finishing 84-78, tied for the fifth-best record in the A.L., which would put them in the postseason for a third consecutive year. That’s 11 fewer wins than the Rangers led the A.L. with in 2016. The Astros will have the best record in the A.L. at 93-69 after going 84-78 in ’16. A look at the A.L. projections:

A.L.

Projection

Astros

93-69

Indians

92-70

Red Sox

90-72

Mariners

87-75

Rangers

84-78

Rays

84-78

The Dodgers are predicted to have the best record in the majors at 98-64. The World Series-defending Cubs are projected to win 12 fewer games in ’17. A look at the National League:

N.L.

Record

Dodgers

98-64

Cubs

91-71

Mets

88-74

Nationals

87-75

Giants

86-76

Pirates

81-81

These projections are based on team depth charts with a playing time-weighted estimation of a players production. Those are combined to figure team projections.

Of course, the Rangers and most other clubs are still tinkering with their rosters, so these are fluid predictions.

A year ago, Baseball Prospectus predicted the Rangers to go 80-82 and finish third in the West based in the same PECOTA data, which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm. They predicted three of the six A.L. playoff teams correctly and all five in the N.L. Still ... whatever.

Insert eye roll emoji here.

Stefan Stevenson: 817-390-7760, @StevensonFWST

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