Analysis: Three things TCU men’s basketball needs to do to make NCAA Tournament
Despite Sunday’s disappointing blowout loss to Colorado, TCU men’s basketball still has a solid opportunity to reach the NCAA Tournament.
The Horned Frogs (13-9, 3-6) have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the Big 12. On one night TCU is capable of defeating talented teams like Florida and pushing elite teams like Houston and Kansas.
On other nights, the Horned Frogs have shown they’re capable of losing to New Orleans and a Colorado team that was in the midst of a six-game losing streak.
Despite the setbacks, ESPN “bracketology” expert Joe Lunardi still has TCU listed in his “next four out” section in his latest NCAA Tournament projection. The Horned Frogs are likely one winning streak away from getting on the right side of the bubble.
But the question remains: Which is the real version of TCU? At the midway point of Big 12 play, the answer remains unclear, and the Horned Frogs don’t have much time to find their identity with only nine games remaining in the regular season.
TCU next hosts Kansas State (10-12, 1-8) at 1 p.m. Saturday on TNT.
Here are three keys for the Horned Frogs if they want to get on the right side of the bubble down the stretch:
Take advantage of the schedule
The conference did TCU no favors in the first half of the league schedule with matchups against four ranked opponents and two rivalry games against Baylor.
At one point, TCU faced three straight ranked teams, all led by likely top-10 picks in the upcoming NBA draft. But that gauntlet is now over, and the Horned Frogs must take advantage and begin to stack wins, starting with Saturday’s game against Kansas State.
The final nine games include a home game against No. 7 Iowa State on Tuesday and another ranked game at No. 13 Texas Tech on March 3 in Lubbock. Central Florida also projects to be a challenge.
But the rest of the schedule is manageable, including two games against the last-place Wildcats, another against Arizona State (2-7 in the Big 12) and a matchup at Oklahoma State, which the Horned Frogs defeated 68-65 on Jan 20.
Historically, getting to .500 in the Big 12 is enough to at least enter the conference tournament on the right side of the bubble. In theory, TCU could lose all three games to Iowa State, Texas Tech and UCF and still make a late run if it handles its business against the lesser opponents on the schedule.
But the Horned Frogs have shown that it’s easier said than done. The blowout in Boulder plus the loss at Utah, the Utes’ only conference win, should serve as reminders that TCU doesn’t have the luxury to overlook any opponent.
Finishing 6-3 should be the goal for TCU down the stretch.
Feed the bigs
One thing the Horned Frogs have figured it out is how dynamic their frontcourt duo of junior Xavier Edmonds and sophomore David Punch has become.
Edmonds, a junior college transfer, has elevated his game since the start of conference play and has produced four straight double-doubles while also showcasing how versatile his game is. He has evolved from being merely a finisher off the pick-and-roll to one of TCU’s best weapons in the half-court.
The same could be said for Punch, who has more than doubled his scoring output from 6.5 points last season to 14.3. Punch has also improved his rebounding, blocks and assists as he’s separated himself as TCU’s best player on a nightly basis.
Punch’s game has also expanded, as he’s added a nice midrange jumper and floater to his arsenal. He’s also been one of the best rim protectors in the league despite being undersized at 6-foot-7.
In the preseason, TCU coach Jamie Dixon said he believed the frontcourt could be a strength for the Horned Frogs, and he ended being correct. Now TCU must lean on the two bigs to reach its goal of getting back to March Madness.
Lineup change?
Since the season-ending injury to center Malick Diallo in the opener, TCU has leaned on the same starting five of Punch, Edmonds, junior Brock Harding, senior Jayden Pierre and junior Liutauras Lelevicius. But is this the right lineup for TCU to stack up wins?
Edmonds and Punch aren’t going anywhere due to the lack of depth. Harding is the best floor general out of the bunch, while Pierre is the most experienced guard.
If there is swap to be made it would be Lelevicius. The Oregon State transfer has emerged as TCU’s best shooter, knocking down 40.8% of his 3s, but there are some limitations with Lelevicius’ game. Dixon has said in the past the Horned Frogs have challenged him to be more of a factor rebounding and on the defensive end.
When the outside shots aren’t falling, Lelevicius isn’t able to impact the game as much as sophomore forward Micah Robinson. Robinson has been slightly more productive coming off the bench and plays roughly the same minutes as Lelevicius already. While Robinson is a better rebounder, athlete and defender, he’s only shooting 30.3% from 3, below the national average, which could be the main reason he continues to come off the bench.
Sophomore RJ Jones and freshman Kayden Edwards may also be deserving of more minutes if TCU isn’t able to turn things around.
Every option has to be on the table if the Horned Frogs are going to make a push to the tournament.
This story was originally published February 5, 2026 at 5:00 AM.
