TCU football year in review: How should this season be viewed?
With Saturday’s 45-23 win over Cincinnati, TCU football closed the regular season with an 8-4 record for the second straight year.
Things looked dicey for the Horned Frogs just a few weeks ago, as there was a real possibility of finishing 6-6 after a two-game losing streak to Iowa State and BYU. But TCU was able to rally behind head coach Sonny Dykes and end the year with wins over Houston and Cincinnati.
Now, how should this season be viewed in its totality as TCU awaits its bowl game fate?
On one hand, the Horned Frogs came up well short of their preseason goal of reaching the Big 12 title game at AT&T Stadium. TCU finished ninth in the league despite its 5-4 record due to tiebreakers with Iowa State and Kansas State.
There’s no doubt that finishing ninth in year four of the Dykes era certainly wasn’t what the program was expecting to achieve this season, but was it a complete failure?
TCU did pick up its first win over a ranked team since the 2022 Fiesta Bowl by defeating Houston, and the fact that the Horned Frogs rallied these past two weeks despite not having much to play for is a good indicator of the culture in the locker room.
“They prepared incredibly well down the stretch,” Dykes said after the win over Cincinnati. “I thought our last two weeks of practice were exceptional. Just really proud of the guys for doing that. Sometimes it’s hard to do when all the motivational characters out there dangling disappear. I think it says a lot about those guys and the program.”
The Horned Frogs deserve credit for not giving up on the season once they ran into adversity, but how much credit do you give a team for pulling itself out of a hole it made?
The performance against Cincinnati in the regular-season finale was the type of performance that had many fans wondering, “Why couldn’t they play like this all season?”
‘What if’ hangs over TCU football season
The offense executed at the highest level it has since the season opener against North Carolina as Josh Hoover threw more touchdowns than incompletions and Jeremy Payne rushed for a career-high 174 yards.
The defense took some lumps against quarterback Brendan Sorsby and the Bearcats in the first half, but responded in the second by holding Cincinnati to just six points. Overall, this felt like the best defense Dykes has had in Fort Worth, even if the numbers don’t completely show it.
If TCU performed like this all season, there’s no telling how high the Horned Frogs could’ve been ranked or how many more games they could’ve won.
Ultimately the question of “what if” looms over a season in which TCU blew a 17-point lead on the road at Arizona State and also had a fourth-quarter collapse against Iowa State, which was on a four-game losing streak.
If TCU holds on in those games, then the outlook of the year is much different, but didn’t we also say that last year when TCU had ugly losses against Central Florida and Houston?
That’ll be the most frustrating thing Dykes and the staff will have to think about as they await their bowl destination. When Dykes was asked how he viewed the season, he initially tried to keep the focus on the win against the Bearcats.
“You try to keep it one game at a time and not think about the big picture stuff. We’ll look at that starting tomorrow,” Dykes said. “But this was a great win for our guys. I wish we could have played like this more consistently this year. But we did tonight, and that’s what matters. We’ll go and make the adjustments needed to elevate our program, that’s always going to be the case. I assure you we’re going to be really hard on ourselves and look for ways to improve.”
Dykes understands this season was a missed opportunity. The Horned Frogs were building up for 2025 to be their breakthrough season.
Will Josh Hoover return?
They had an experienced quarterback with Hoover, reloaded their weapons at wide receiver and brought back key defensive players in safety Bud Clark and linebacker Namdi Obiazor.
TCU had some great individual performances this season with wide receiver Eric McAlister and linebacker Kaleb Elarms-Orr playing at an All-American level. Talent was never the issue for this team; it was always about execution and avoiding costly mistakes, which the team made far too often this season.
There is no question Dykes has done a good job and has elevated the floor of TCU. In the four years before he was hired, TCU averaged 5.8 wins per season. Since Dykes took over, the Horned Frogs have averaged 8.8 wins with one more game to go.
Even with the new College Football Playoff model that has increased every program’s expectations, averaging nine wins a season is still objectively a good job.
But now the question Dykes must answer is, can he elevate the program back to greatness displayed in 2022 or during the heights of the Gary Patterson era?
Dykes has had some high notes in his career, including leading the Horned Frogs to the national championship game in 2022. He also led SMU to its first 10-win season since 1984 when the Mustangs finished 10-3 in 2019. Dykes’ 9-3 season at Louisiana Tech in 2012 was that program’s first nine-win season since 1997.
Dykes is a floor raiser and has had a good tenure in Fort Worth, but year five will be a huge for him and the program. No matter how many wins you average, going four years without a playoff bid will be hard to stomach for most programs with the ambition of TCU.
What makes things more challenging is the fact the Horned Frogs will have to replace stars like Clark, McAlister and Elarms-Orr, while also trying to retain key players like Hoover, safety Jamel Johnson and defensive tackle Markis Deal.
TCU will have to rebuild and reload simultaneously in the transfer portal if it wants to build a Big 12 contender next season.
Year four under Dykes was a good season, but it still featured too many of the same mistakes that have plagued the program since the defeat to Georgia in the national title game.
Will Dykes be able to get TCU back to that level, or is hovering around 8-4 or 9-3 the ceiling of the program?
