3 reasons TCU football will — or won’t — defeat Iowa State in key Big 12 battle
The stage is set for TCU football to prove whether it’s a contender or pretender with a matchup against Iowa State at 2:30 p.m. Saturday at Amon G. Carter Stadium. The game will be broadcast on Fox.
It’s a simple scenario for the Horned Frogs (6-2, 3-2 Big 12): A win keeps them alive in the conference title race, while a loss will likely be enough to eliminate them. The stakes are high and the pressure is on as the Horned Frogs begin their final stretch of the season.
The Cyclones (5-4, 2-4) started the year 5-0 and ranked in the Top 25, but they have lost four straight and now will play the role of spoiler.
Here are three reasons why TCU will defeat — or fall — to Iowa State:
Three reasons TCU will defeat Iowa State
1. Banged-up Cyclones
While TCU was able to use the bye week to get some of its important pieces back, the Cyclones continued to rack up injuries on defense. According to ESPN’s Pete Thamel, Iowa State will be without six of its 11 opening day starters, including preseason All-Big 12 cornerbacks Jeremiah Cooper and Jontez Williams.
Safeties Jamison Patton and Ta’Shawn James were also listed as out on the player availability report. Meanwhile, TCU freshman wide receiver Ed Small is the team’s lone important contributor listed as out.
The Horned Frogs are the healthier team, which often decides games this late into the season.
2. Wide receiver advantage
If Iowa State were healthy, this would have been a top-tier matchup between the Big 12’s best group of receivers against the best secondary in the league. But without Cooper, Willams and Patton, the Cyclones will be at a severe personnel disadvantage.
TCU should get a boost from having Joseph Manjack back after he didn’t play in the past two games. He has been the receiver that’s been most successful at exploiting defenses that double- and triple-cover Eric McAlister. McAlister, Manjack or Jordan Dwyer should be able to get 100 yards against Iowa State’s hobbled secondary.
3. Home Frogs
TCU is on a seven-game winning streak at Amon G. Carter Stadium, and it’s clear that the Horned Frogs are a much different team at home than on the road. TCU has been held under 30 points in three of its four road games this season, while scoring at least 35 in every game in Fort Worth.
Quarterback Josh Hoover has 16 touchdown passes and just one interception at the Carter compared to six touchdowns and five interceptions on the road. The Horned Frogs have also run the ball more consistently at home.
Three reasons Iowa State will upset TCU
1. Potent run game
TCU’s rushing defense will be tested against the Cyclones’ two-headed rushing attack of Carson Hansen and Abu Sama III. Sama was limited last week against Arizona State, but he was listed as probable on the player availability report.
Together the duo has rushed for more than 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns. Both are strong, physical runners who can also generate chunk plays. TCU has held up well against the run this year, but this might be the deepest running back group the Horned Frogs have faced.
2. Matchup nightmare?
If there’s been one weakness to TCU’s defense it has been guarding tight ends and vertical passes. Iowa State has one of the league’s best tight ends with the 6-foot-7 Benjamin Brahmer, who is second on the team with 365 yards with a team-best four touchdowns.
Kansas State’s Garrett Oakley feasted on the Horned Frogs’ secondary with 71 yards and two touchdowns. TCU did a better job of limiting Baylor’s Michael Trigg, but he still had 56 yards on three receptions.
Brahmer has had at least 48 yards in four straight games. It will bode well for TCU’s chances if the Horned Frogs can hold him underneath that total.
3. TCU comes out flat
Iowa State is a program that can never be overlooked, but nothing about its recent play suggests the Horned Frogs shouldn’t come out on top, as long they bring the right amount of effort and win the turnover battle.
The Cyclones’ usually elite defense ranks 11th in the Big 12 in rushing defense, 10th in passing defense and 14th in sacks. Iowa State does have the fifth-best passing offense in the league, but quarterback Rocco Becht only has 11 touchdowns and seven interceptions on the season, with five of those picks coming during this four-game losing streak.
With the Cyclones trending in the wrong direction, they’ll likely need some help from mistakes by the Horned Frogs to snap their skid.
Prediction
With more firepower and the home crowd motivating TCU, the Horned Frogs start their four-game gauntlet with a 31-17 win over Iowa State, setting up a massive showdown next week at BYU.
