Three reasons why TCU football will — or won’t — defeat rival Baylor
It’s rivalry week and homecoming for TCU as it faces Baylor at 11 a.m. Saturday at Amon G. Carter Stadium.
Both teams are seeking to remain viable in the Big 12 title race. The Horned Frogs (4-2, 1-2) are hoping the friendly environment will help them shake off last week’s disappointing loss at Kansas State, while Baylor (4-2, 2-1) is looking to potentially make a move into the Top 25.
Saturday’s showdown will feature two of the nation’s best quarterbacks and should come down to the wire like last year’s matchup in Waco, a 37-34 Baylor win.
TCU has won eight of the past 10 games against Baylor.
Here are three reasons why that dominance will continue, or three reasons why Baylor will win its second straight against the Horned Frogs:
Three reasons why TCU will defeat Baylor
1. Home Hoover
The stats paint a clear picture that TCU’s Josh Hoover is one of the nation’s best quarterbacks when playing at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Hoover is 9-3 as a starter at home with 34 touchdowns and just nine interceptions. TCU will need its quarterback to play at his highest level as the Horned Frogs face a Baylor offense that is among the most productive in the nation.
If Hoover plays up to his home standards, then the Horned Frogs have a good chance of winning.
2. Improved run defense
The Bears ran all over TCU last year with Bryson Washington rushing for 196 yards and four touchdowns, including key moments on Baylor’s final drive to set up the game-winning field goal. The Horned Frogs have taken major strides with their run defense, as the unit ranked 13th in the Big 12 last season, but is seventh this season.
Baylor’s rushing attack isn’t as productive as last season with the injury to Dawson Pendergrass. Washington is still around and one of the most underrated backs in the country, but TCU is more equipped to stop him this season.
3. Playmaking defense
It’ll be difficult for TCU’s defense to completely stop Baylor, but one thing the Horned Frogs can do is force turnovers. Despite not getting a takeaway last week against Kansas State, TCU’s defense still ranks in the top 15 nationally for turnovers forced against FBS opponents.
Baylor has mostly been efficient offensively, but Arizona State was successful in forcing multiple turnovers in a narrow win over Baylor. TCU’s leaders, like safeties Bud Clark and Jamel Johnson, will need to generate their fair share of takeaways to slow down one of the Big 12’s best offenses.
Three reasons Baylor will defeat TCU
1. QB advantage?
Sawyer Robertson defeated Hoover head-to-head last season and so far has been the best quarterback in the state of Texas. Robertson leads the nation with 2,058 passing yards and 19 touchdown passes while throwing just four interceptions, and his ESPN Total QBR of 77.5 ranks 24th in the country.
The senior has thrown for at least 345 yards in four games this season and does a good job of spreading the ball around to a deep receiver room.
TCU will be in trouble if Robertson outplays Hoover.
2. Third-down defense
One key aspect that makes this matchup so tricky for TCU is the defense’s lack of success getting off the field. The Horned Frogs rank last in the Big 12 in third-down defense, with opponents converting 44.2% of their opportunities. TCU also ranks last in fourth-down defense (77.8%) and 14th in the conference in red zone defense.
TCU’s defense can get after the quarterback and generate turnovers, but those aspects overshadow how bad the unit has been at stringing together stops. If Baylor converts over 50% of its third and fourth downs, then it will be hard for the Horned Frogs to win at home.
3. Banged up offensive line?
The Horned Frogs are already down starting left tackle Ryan Hughes for the rest of the season, but the latest player availability report also indicates the Horned Frogs could be without starting center Coltin Deery and starting left guard Cade Bennett, as both players were listed as questionable.
Having either one out of the lineup would be a huge setback to an offensive line that is still trying to find itself. The weakness of Baylor’s defense is its rushing defense, but will TCU have the personnel to exploit it?
Prediction
Robertson and Hoover have one of the nation’s best quarterback duels, but a healthier Baylor squad pulls out a 38-35 win over the Horned Frogs.
