In today’s college football, Baylor at TCU is the ‘You’re Next to be Fired Bowl’
The most important detail to a college football coach, after their current record, is their latest buyout figure.
Since both Baylor and TCU are private schools, the following are approximate: To dump BU football coach Dave Aranda will cost $12 million. Ish. His contract expires after the 2029 season.
For TCU to dismiss football coach Sonny Dykes, it will likely be in the neighborhood of $20 million. Ish. His contract, which was extended after reaching the national title game in 2023, expires after the ‘28 season.
In Texas A&M-speak, this is “Jimbo change.”
All of this buyout talk is preposterous, irresponsible, hypocritical, offensive, sad, pathetic and relevant for both men, their families and their employers.
TCU’s game Saturday against Baylor in Fort Worth won’t move the needle for the crew on ESPN’s “College GameDay” set, but the losing coach will own the most uncomfortable seven-figure seat in Texas. Of the major programs in this state, both Aranda and Dykes now top the dreaded “First to be Fired” list.
With the Big 12 “wide open,” both Baylor and TCU think they should be in the conference title game, and in playoff talk. Instead, both are leaning toward another decent year and an appearance in the “Meh — It’s Fine Bowl sponsored by tube socks.”
In this brain-dead climate, that will get you fired.
Baylor’s continued Dave Aranda problem
In six seasons in Waco, Aranda has two winning records, notably the 12-2 team in 2021, which included a Sugar Bowl win. The Bears rallied for an 8-5 season in 2024, but those are the two high points.
The school has spent the money, and while there has been patience to allow for a rebuild, the results are not overwhelming. The crowd for Baylor’s come-from-behind win against Kansas State on Oct. 4 in Waco was awful.
It doesn’t help that Aranda is 1-4 against TCU. A loss Saturday would drop Baylor’s record this season to 4-3, with remaining games at ranked Cincinnati and home against Utah.
Aranda’s margin for losses is gone.
Sonny Dykes’ ‘TCU problem’
Before the start of the season, TCU athletic director Mike Buddie said that “the next two seasons for TCU football are the most important ever in its history.”
TCU’s last games against ranked opponents came in the final month of the ‘23 season: Texas and Oklahoma. Both losses. Both are now in the SEC.
The school expects to contend for a Big 12 title, and a playoff spot, which would give it the best chance to remain in the highest tier of Power 4 football just in case major conference realignment occurs again.
TCU, like Baylor, does not have the enrollment or alumni numbers to think a spot in that potential conference setup is guaranteed. The only route to have a chance at an invitation is to win.
TCU’s playoff win and appearance in the national title game came in 2022, but the lifespan of a college football coach is that of a mayfly, which lives 24 hours. It’s not fair, but Dykes’ achievements in his first season happened 78,000 years ago.
After starting this season 3-0, TCU narrowly lost at Arizona State on Sept. 26, and was embarrassed at Kansas State on Oct. 11. The offensive line is average, the running game features one legit back, and the defense has issues.
Dykes’ body of work at TCU reads, “31-15; ‘22 Big 12 title game; ‘22 Fiesta Bowl playoff win; ‘23 national title game; No. 2 final ranking in ‘22; ‘24 New Mexico Bowl win; 6-4 against Top 25 opponents.” The 2022 season makes his hire worth it.
The same body of work also reads, “18-13 since start of 2023 season; ranked two weeks in AP poll.”
Complicating matters for Dykes is that the two key figures who hired him — athletic director Jeremiah Donati and chancellor Victor Boschini — are no longer in those roles. Donati is at South Carolina, and Boschini has an emeritus position.
For a school and program that spend, and expect, so much, this is an issue. Especially in this climate.
‘Fired’ talk fits every single head coach but Indiana’s Curt Cignetti
Coaches are getting fired faster than Democrats from their government jobs, because apparently money isn’t real.
UCLA, Virginia Tech, Penn State, Oklahoma State, Oregon State, UAB and Arkansas have all fired their head coaches since the start of the season. Florida is reportedly expected to fire Billy Napier, possibly as early as Saturday. The combined buyout figure of the already-fired coaches is approximately $93.6 million, with Penn State swallowing $49 million to make James Franklin go away.
In 2024, Penn State finished the season ranked fifth, won two playoff games, and lost by 3 to Notre Dame in the Orange Bowl. On Sept. 27, Penn State was ranked No. 3 and lost in double overtime at home to No. 6 Oregon.
Two weeks later, after upset losses to UCLA and Northwestern, Franklin was fired.
Fear of losing recruits, selling tickets, and a loss of momentum is making almost every coach vulnerable.
“It feels a little crazy,” Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer said on the SEC coaches’ conference call Wednesday. “I just feel bad for the coaches that I know are really good coaches and the players and the staffs that are in those programs and have half a season to work through intense situations.”
With limited exception, every coach now is terrible, awful, clueless, and whatever they did last week, let alone last season, has no bearing on their job security.
All that matters is what you did this week and the buyout figure, which puts Aranda and Dykes atop a dreaded list.
This story was originally published October 15, 2025 at 6:38 PM.
