Three reasons TCU will — or won’t — end its losing streak at Kansas State
TCU football heads to a place that has historically given it trouble when the Horned Frogs (4-1, 1-1 Big 12) face Kansas State (2-4, 1-2) at 2:30 p.m. Saturday in Manhattan, Kansas.
The game features two of the better quarterbacks in the Big 12, and both teams enter with key injuries that could affect the outcome.
The last time TCU played at Kansas State, in 2023, the 41-3 defeat was one of the low points of the Sonny Dykes era, but Dykes and the Horned Frogs would like to think the program has changed drastically since then.
Here are three reasons why TCU will finally get a win in Manhattan, or lose for the fourth straight time there:
Three reasons why TCU will snap losing streak at Kansas State
1. No Dylan Edwards
Dylan Edwards, the Wildcats’ second-leading rusher, was ruled out for Saturday’s matchup on Thursday night after initially being listed as questionable. It’ll be a major blow to a Kansas State offense that has been inconsistent without him. Edwards is one of the fastest players in the Big 12 and was capable of scoring as a runner, receiver and on special teams.
With one less playmaker to worry about, TCU’s defense will have an easier time against dual-threat quarterback Avery Johnson.
2. Ball-hawking defense
The Horned Frogs’ defense has put a major emphasis on making more game-changing plays this season, and the unit has been successful so far, as TCU ranks second nationally in turnovers forced per game against power conference opponents. The Horned Frogs are forcing 2.5 turnovers a game after forcing four more in last week’s 35-21 win over Colorado.
Senior safety Bud Clark has always been known as a ball hawk, but now he has a wingman in junior safety Jamel Johnson, who leads TCU with three interceptions. Senior linebacker Namdi Obiazor is another player who has generated multiple takeaways this season.
TCU needs one of that trio to make a momentum-changing play.
3. Vulnerable secondary?
Kansas State has underachieved on defense, and the secondary has shown it can be picked on at times. Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson lit the Wildcats up for 345 yards and two touchdowns in the Bears’ 35-34 comeback win last week.
TCU quarterback Josh Hoover is the same tier with Robertson as a passer and has a better collection of receivers to throw to. Hoover could have a big day if given time.
Three reasons why Kansas State will defeat TCU
1. Avery Johnson’s speed
While Johnson can be inconsistent as a passer, when he’s at his best, he’s still one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the country. TCU has faced its fair share of mobile quarterbacks this season, but none has the speed or athleticism that Johnson has.
With Edwards out, Johnson will likely have more carries. TCU must find a way to keep Johnson’s rushing total in check, or it could be a long day.
2. Shaky offensive line play?
TCU may not have a chance to exploit Kansas State’s secondary if the Horned Frogs aren’t more physical up front. The offensive line has regressed since the second half against SMU, as TCU has been held under 100 yards rushing in back-to-back games. And now the Horned Frogs will be without starting left tackle Ryan Hughes for the rest of the season.
The Horned Frogs must win the battle at the line of scrimmage, or it’ll be much more difficult to win the game.
3. House of horrors
Manhattan has been a tough place for the Horned Frogs to play even going back to the Gary Patterson days. For whatever reason, TCU hasn’t managed to play its best in the Little Apple and is just 3-6 all-time there.
Despite the Wildcats’ slow start, there should still be an electric crowd awaiting the Horned Frogs. Some TCU players admitted that the environment at Arizona State impacted the effectiveness of the offense, and Kansas State has an even better home-field advantage.
The Horned Frogs must be able to endure and overcome the hostile crowd.
Prediction
I had TCU losing this game in the preseason, but Kansas State’s slow start and the injury to Edwards have caused me to flip my pick.
It won’t be pretty, but the Horned Frogs will gut out at 27-24 win.
