3 reasons why TCU will — or won’t — win final Battle for Iron Skillet vs. SMU
Welcome to the first edition of “three reasons why” for the 2025 TCU football season.
It’s a special occasion Saturday, as the Horned Frogs will face SMU in the 104th — and, for now, last — Battle for the Iron Skillet after TCU opted to indefinitely pause the series.
A rivalry that used to not have any juice now has plenty of stakes for both teams, like vying for a top 25 berth and both quarterbacks attempting to establish themselves as the best signal-caller in Texas.
The final rivalry game should feature plenty of fireworks.
Here are three reasons why TCU will or won’t come out on top:
Three reasons why TCU will defeat SMU
1. A more mature Hoover
There’s no sugarcoating it, quarterback Josh Hoover melted down in Dallas last season with four turnovers (two interceptions, two fumbles). But Hoover was still an inexperienced quarterback then, and he has grown tremendously since that outing.
Hoover has improved as a decision-maker, which helped TCU end last season with six wins in its final seven games. There’s been no regression so far this season with six touchdowns and just one interception. Hoover’s QBR of 90.3 is No. 3 in the nation according to ESPN. If he plays up to standard, it’ll be hard for SMU to slow down TCU’s offense.
2. TCU’s defense is legit?
The Horned Frogs should easily be the best defense the Mustangs have seen so far this season after SMU opened with East Texas A&M, Baylor and Missouri State. None presented a real challenge for the Mustangs, but the Horned Frogs have a unit capable of doing so if the defense can replicate the effort it showed against North Carolina.
TCU’s improved pass rush will be the key to keeping SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings in check. It’ll be the first real test for the Horned Frogs’ defense, but it has all the tools to ace its first big exam.
3. Sonny Delight
Recent history says that having Sonny Dykes on your sideline increases the chance of victory in the Battle for the Iron Skillet immensely. Dykes won four straight in the series as the coach of SMU and TCU before the Mustangs finally stopped his streak last season.
Dykes was ejected from the 66-42 loss and hasn’t had any problems taking small digs at his former school the past few seasons. Don’t be surprised if Dykes puts on a coaching master class in the final Iron Skillet game.
Three reasons why SMU will defeat TCU
1. Missing Kevorian Barnes
As of Thursday, the status of TCU running back Kevorian Barnes remains in jeopardy after he sustained an injury in the first half of the Horned Frogs’ win over Abilene Christian.
Not only is Barnes TCU’s leading rusher, he’s also the only running back in the room who can wear down defenses with his size and power. This would be the exact type of game where a running back like Barnes would be his most valuable.
Sophomore Jeremy Payne and freshman Nate Palmer are talented and capable, but there’s a reason the staff went with Barnes over the younger running backs. If Barnes can’t go, it’ll make life much harder for TCU.
2. TCU’s defense isn’t legit?
The Horned Frogs’ defense had a dominant opening six quarters to the season in the blowout win over North Carolina and the first half against Abilene Christian. But the second half against the Wildcats showed some troubling signs, like the cornerbacks struggling in one-on-one scenarios and the pass rush failing to consistently generate pressure without sending an extra defender.
The Horned Frogs must be more disciplined and aggressive on defense to slow Jennings, a true dual threat quarterback who can beat TCU in a variety of ways. If the defense that played against Abilene Christian in the second half shows up, then TCU will struggle to win.
3. The turnover battle
SMU’s defense hasn’t been great this season, but one thing it has done at a high level is force turnovers.
In just three games, five players have intercepted a pass and three players have recovered fumbles. This defense thrives on causing havoc, and forcing mistakes and turnovers was the main reason the Mustangs rolled last season.
While TCU ranks ahead of SMU in turnover margin per game, Dykes wasn’t pleased with the fact that TCU didn’t force a turnover against Abilene Christian. The Horned Frogs must win the turnover battle to increase their odds of victory.
TCU-SMU prediction
TCU ends the Iron Skillet series on a high note with a 35-31 win.
This story was originally published September 19, 2025 at 4:30 AM.
