Analysis: A deeper look at TCU’s baseball path in the Corvallis Regional
After narrowly missing the field last season, a motivated TCU baseball squad is back in the NCAA Tournament and eager to prove it should’ve been hosting a regional.
Despite not getting the opportunity to host at Lupton Field, the Horned Frogs still have a manageable path in the Corvallis Regional that features Oregon State, USC and Saint Mary’s.
While USC is talented and Saint Mary’s is on a bit of a hot streak, the Horned Frogs will be the No. 1 challenger to the host Beavers. TCU started to click late in the season with two series wins over Cincinnati and Utah plus reaching the Big 12 tournament championship game.
If the Horned Frogs can maintain their momentum then there’s a good chance TCU could upset Oregon State and advance to a Super Regional.
Here’s a look at the schedule, key players and what TCU needs to do to reach a Super Regional:
Schedule
Friday, May 30
Game 1 - 2 p.m. CST - (2) TCU vs. (3) USC - ESPNU
Game 2 - 7 p.m. CST - (1) Oregon State vs. (4) Saint Mary’s - ESPN+
Saturday, May 31
Game 3 - 2 p.m. - Loser Game 1 vs. Loser Game 2 - TBA
Game 4 - 8 p.m. - Winner Game 1 vs. Winner Game 2 - TBA
Sunday, June 1
Game 5 - 5 p.m. - Winner Game 3 vs. Loser Game 4 - TBA
Game 6 - 9 p.m. - Winner Game 4 vs. Winner Game 5 - TBA
Monday, June 2
Game 7 - TBD - Winner Game 6 vs. Loser Game 6 (if necessary) - TBA
Breakdown: The opening round of the NCAA Tournament features a double elimination format, which means even a loss to USC on Friday wouldn’t eliminate TCU from contention. The winner of the regional will advance to a Super Regional against the winner of the Tallahassee Regional. That will be a best of three series played during June 7-10.
Key players to know
TCU infielder Sawyer Strosnider
TCU starting pitcher Tommy LaPour
TCU outfielder Noah Franco
TCU outfielder Chase Brunson
TCU pitcher Louis Rodriguez
Oregon State infielder Aiva Arquette
Oregon State outfielder Gavin Turley
Oregon State pitcher Ethan Kleinschmit
USC infielder/pitcher Ethan Hedges
USC infielder Adrian Lopez
USC pitcher Caden Aoki
Saint Mary’s first baseman/outfielder Eddie Madrigal
Saint Mary’s infielder Ryan Pierce
Saint Mary’s pitcher Dylan Delvecchio
Breakdown: The Horned Frogs are led by Big 12 Freshman of the Year Sawyer Strosnider, who set a new single season program record for triples and also leads the team with 50 RBI. Franco is another standout freshman that has 11 home runs and 49 RBI. LaPour may be the best starting pitcher in the regional while Rodriguez has been about as steady as you can get for a reliever as he’s second on the team in ERA and leads the bullpen with 24 appearances.
Arquette is one of the best players in the country and is a likely first round draft pick. MLB.com has Arquette as its No. 5 prospect overall and the second best prospect in college. Arquette and Turley have combined for 137 RBIs this season for the Beavers are a potent punch in their lineup. Kleinschmit has a 7-3 record as a starter and allows an ERA of 3.84.
The Trojans are led by Hedges, a two-way standout that leads USC in home runs and RBI. Hedges also has provided value as a closer with nine saves on the season. Lopez provides plenty of offense at the plate with 49 RBI while Aoki leads an above average pitching staff.
Winners of nine of their last 10 games, the Gaels are led by Modrigal, who has a staggering 21 home runs and 77 RBI on the year. Pierce is another capable hitter that has over 50 RBI and 14 homers this season.
TCU’s path
The Horned Frogs and Trojans faced last season with TCU pulling out a thrilling 9-8 victory in extra innings against Hedges and Aoki. TCU should like its chances of winning another against USC due to the versatility the Horned Frogs have shown late in the season. In terms of firepower, TCU has more of it led by Strosnider, Franco and Brunson. USC ranked just No. 12 in the Big 10 in runs scored.
TCU’s depth in the bullpen should also provide an advantage against the Trojans and in the regional overall, but the big question will be when does LaPour take the mound. Do you use him Game 1 to pick up a win against USC or do you save him for a likely matchup against Oregon State on Saturday? If TCU’s offense can maintain its last season output, it may be a moot point. The Horned Frogs scored at least six runs in nine of their final 10 games.
It would be a major surprise if Oregon State were to fall to Saint Mary’s on Friday. If TCU handles their business against the Trojans, there’s a good chance the Horned Frogs could beat Oregon State and move to 2-0 in the regional. The Horned Frogs are more battle tested after making it through the Big 12 while Oregon State was forced to play an independent schedule.
With a deep bullpen and a lineup that’s getting production from its key players TCU must like its chances of making it to the Super Regional.
