Post-spring Big 12 football power rankings: Where does TCU sit among contenders?
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the Big 12 projects to be wide open with as many as six teams believing they should be among the early favorites to make the Big 12 football title game.
Bookies are having a hard time determining a favorite. FanDuel released its projected win totals earlier this off-season and three teams had totals of 8.5 wins while another five had a projected win total of 7.5.
There’s not much separation among the teams at the top of the league, which means fans should brace themselves for another intense conference title race that goes down to the wire.
With the spring transfer portal window season done, here’s a look at how the teams stack up as preseason camp approaches:
1. Arizona State
Breakdown: The defending Big 12 champions will enter 2025 with a target on their back after reaching the College Football Playoff, but the Sun Devils have everything they need to repeat. Sam Leavitt is one of the best quarterbacks in the conference and the Sun Devils also return talented wide receiver Jordyn Tyson. Replacing running back Cam Skattebo will be a daunting task, but Arizona State signed Army transfer Kanye Udoh, who rushed for over 1,100 yards last season.
Per ESPN’s Bill Connelly, Arizona State returns 79% of its production from last season. That ranks second in the country behind Clemson.
2. Kansas State
Breakdown: The Wildcats have been the most consistent team in the league since Chris Klieman took over and it’s a safe bet to assume the Wildcats will contend for a Big 12 title again. Avery Johnson returns at quarterback and is a dynamic dual-threat. If he can take a leap as a passer, Johnson could help open up the Kansas State offense even more.
K-State brought in blue chip recruit Linkon Cure at tight end and former Texas Tech receiver Jerand Bradley to provide Johnson with more weapons.
3. Baylor
Breakdown: The Bears have a strong argument to be No. 2 as they return plenty of production from last year’s 8-5 squad led by quarterback Sawyer Robertson and running back Bryson Washington. Washington had a stretch of rushing for more than 100 yards in five of six games as Baylor turned its season around after a slow start. Baylor also is bringing in Alabama transfer receiver Kobe Prentice and Florida International linebacker Travion Barnes, who was voted Conference USA Defensive Player of the Year.
Improving the secondary will be key for Baylor’s chances of contending.
4. TCU
Breakdown: Many seem to forget TCU finished the season 9-4 and was a play or two away from possibly being a 10-win team. Josh Hoover was second in the league in passing last season and should have even more confidence in his second year as a starter. The Horned Frogs lost two NFL receivers in Jack Bech and Savion Williams, but return Eric McAlister and added Jordan Dwyer (Idaho) and Joseph Manjack (Houston).
The Horned Frogs could be really good on defense with the return of Bud Clark and Namdi Obiazor, but TCU must find consistency with its run game if it really wants to contend.
5. Texas Tech
Breakdown: The Red Raiders were the talk off the off-season with how much they spent on a transfer class that ranks No. 1 in the country. There’s a lot to like, especially the return of quarterback Behren Morton and the transfer class Tech assembled on the defensive line. But with two new coordinators and such a heavy reliance on the portal, there should be more skepticism about Tech’s contender status.
With a roster that has a price tag of over $30 million, eight wins won’t cut it.
6. BYU
Breakdown: The Cougars were one of the biggest surprises in the country last season as they went from 5-7 to 11-2, largely thanks to a defense that ranked No. 18 in scoring defense. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff returns after a solid season and has his top receiver Chase Roberts coming back. But the Cougars will have to replace much of their elite defense from a year ago, especially on the defensive line.
7. Iowa State
Breakdown: The Cyclones reached the Big 12 title game last season behind a prolific offense led by Rocco Becht. Becht returns at quarterback, but will be without two NFL wide receivers. Iowa State made a splash by landing East Carolina transfer receiver Chase Sowell, who should be able to step in immediately and produce. There are more holes to fill and Iowa State will rely on internal development to fill those gaps.
8. Utah
Breakdown: The transition to the Big 12 didn’t go as smoothly as many Utah fans anticipated as the Utes struggled to a 5-7 finish. The defense was still among the best in the country, but the offensive production was among the worst in the country. Utah brought in quarterback Devon Dampier and offensive coordinator Jason Beck from New Mexico to provide a spark to the offense.
We know the Utes will always play high level defense, but if the offense is able to open up with Dampier at the helm then the Utes could be a dark horse.
9. Kansas
Breakdown: Let’s start with the good news for the Jayhawks, who return Jalon Daniels at quarterback. Daniels struggled at the start of the season, but rebounded to lead the Jayhawks on a three-game winning streak against top-25 opponents. He still isn’t quite back to the level he played at in 2022, but is still one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the league.
The bad news? Almost every other player that sparked the Jayhawks’ turn around like Devin Neal, Cobee Bryant and his three leading receivers from last season are all gone. Kansas will have more than a dozen new starters and a new offensive coordinator. Reaching bowl eligibility is possible, but could be a challenge with so many new faces.
10. Cincinnati
Breakdown: The Bearcats return two key building blocks with quarterback Brendan Sorsby and former All-American defensive lineman Dontay Corleone. Cincinnati started last season fast with a 5-2 start, but finished the year on a five game losing streak. The signing of Coastal Carolina transfer Matthew McDoom should help the secondary. With better luck in one score games, Cincinnati could make a bowl game, but it still doesn’t feel like this roster is ready to compete for a Big 12 title.
11. Colorado
Breakdown: Deion Sanders and the Buffaloes will enter a new era without star players Travis Hunter, Shedeur Sanders and Jimmy Horn. There’s no telling what Colorado will look like on offense, but the program did sign Kaidon Salter from Liberty. Salter is one of the top dual-threat quarterbacks in the country, which means Colorado will likely need to tweak its offense to match his skill set if he’s able to beat out five-star freshman Julian Lewis.
There’s reason to think the defense will be solid, but Colorado is replacing over 15 starters and this feels like a rebuilding year for Colorado.
12. Houston
Breakdown: The Cougars scored major upsets over TCU and Kansas State last year despite having the worst offense in the league. Houston hopes the remedy the offensive woes with the addition of Texas A&M transfer quarterback Conner Weigman, a former five-star recruit. Houston landed solid transfers at receiver, tight end and the offensive line, but the Cougars lost their defensive coordinator and a number of their top players in the secondary to programs like LSU and Miami.
13. Oklahoma State
Breakdown: After the worst season of his coaching tenure in Stillwater, coach Mike Gundy made sweeping changes across the board including bringing former TCU wide receivers coach Doug Meacham to be the offensive coordinator. The Cowboys also signed TCU transfer quarterback Hauss Hejny as their quarterback of the future. There’s a lot of turmoil in Stillwater right now and Gundy needs a bounce back year to keep his job.
14. West Virginia
Breakdown: Rich Rodriguez is back at his alma mater and undergoing a massive roster turnaround ahead of his first season. The Mountaineers lost over 40 players to the portal and replaced them with virtually the same amount. Running back Jahiem White returns, but this will basically be a brand new squad in the Big 12. It’ll take time to get the talent level back up on the roster.
15. Arizona
Breakdown: Arizona went from a 10-win team to winning just four games in Brent Brennan’s first season which led to a massive way of transfer departures this off-season. The Wildcats also lost receiver Tetairoa McMillan, a first round pick, and standout corner Tacario Davis. Noah Fifita returns at quarterback and if he returns to his 2023 form, then Arizona could be an interesting team, but the Wildcats have been drained of talent the last two seasons.
16. Central Florida
Breakdown: The Knights rank near the bottom of the Power Four in terms of returning production after losing talented players like Kobe Hudson and Rj Harvey. UCF did sign Jaden Nixon from Western Michigan to take over at running back, but there are far more questions than answers at UCF. Scott Frost will have his hands full trying to get UCF to contender status.
This story was originally published May 16, 2025 at 9:45 AM.
