Analysis: What we’ve learned about the TCU men’s basketball team so far
As the TCU men’s basketball team approaches the midway point of the season, the Horned Frogs are officially on the clock if they want to play in a fourth straight NCAA Tournament.
Through 14 games, TCU sits at 8-6 overall and 1-2 in the Big 12 after Monday’s lopsided 65-46 loss to No. 12 Houston. There was optimism that the Horned Frogs could reload this season instead of rebuilding, but it’s starting to look like a year where a postseason trip to the NIT could be a more reasonable.
The Horned Frogs lost their most impactful player Frankie Collins to a season-ending injury and were without their best shooter Brendan Wenzel for a number of games as well. The absence of Collins is a big reason TCU is just 1-6 in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games this season.
It’s not all bleak for TCU as the Big 12 has enough good teams in the league that all it takes is a few marquee wins to get back close to the bubble. Is it too late for the Horned Frogs to get on a run?
Ahead of the Horned Frogs’ matchup with BYU on Saturday, here’s what we’ve learned so far about TCU and how that will impact the program’s chance to go back the tournament in March:
Different team at home
TCU is a perfect 8-0 at Schollmaier Arena while being 0-3 on the road and 0-3 at neutral sites, including the 83-74 loss to Vanderbilt at Dickies Arena on Dec. 8. It’s not uncommon for college teams to play much better at home, but to be winless away from your home arena at this point of the season is concerning.
Some of the Horned Frogs’ success at home is about the schedule as there are wins over teams like Alcorn and Florida A&M, but TCU also defeated Xavier and Kansas State at home. What’s been the biggest difference between TCU at home and on the road? Aside from tougher competition it’s been the offensive production.
At home, TCU is averaging 74.8 points, but that number plummets to just 64.8 points on the road. As a team, the Horned Frogs make about 45.5% of their field goals compared to just 40.1% on the road. The Horned Frogs have been held below 40% shooting three times away from Schollmaier and some of those games happened with Collins in the lineup.
TCU should be able to secure an upset or two at home, but it may not matter if TCU isn’t able to perform better on the road.
Reynolds has stepped up
Transfer guard Noah Reynolds got off to a slow start at the beginning of the year after transferring over from Green Bay. One of the top scorers in the country last season, Reynolds had to overcome a nagging hand injury and had to find comfort in his role along with the other newcomers.
Reynolds started the year as more of a distributor, but since Dec. 22 he’s began to show why he was a 20-point per game scorer in 2023. Reynolds has scored in double figures the last four games and he’s been efficient as his production has increased. In three Big 12 games Reynolds is averaging 20 points and shooting 55% from the field.
What’s been most impressive about his scoring surge is the fact that he’s done a lot of it getting to the rack. Against Houston, Reynolds had a number of tough, impressive finishes in the paint over much bigger defenders. Without Collins in the lineup, somebody needed to step up and Reynolds has answered the call.
Free throw woes
When it comes to free throw shooting, it’s officially time to be concerned for TCU as the Horned Frogs are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the country. That’s not hyperbole, TCU ranks No. 346 out of 363 teams nationally at free throw percentage. The Horned Frogs are only making 64% of their attempts at the charity stripe.
It’s especially problematic, because the Horned Frogs have done a solid job at getting to the line. TCU is averaging 20 attempts per game, which puts them in the top half of the country. It’s always hard to explain free throw struggles, especially when you have good shooters on the roster like TCU does. Overall TCU is missing out on about eight points per game due to the frequent misses.
In a league as tough as the Big 12, four to six points could be a significant swing in any game. The Horned Frogs must improve in a hurry.
Promising Punch
Another bright spot this season has been the play of freshman forward David Punch. There was a ton of pressure on the true freshman with TCU having limited depth in the front court and Punch has grown quickly this season. Punch’s numbers (5.9 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 0.9 blocks per game) won’t immediately jump off the page, but if you pay attention beyond the box score it’s clear that Punch has a promising future.
He’s one of the best defenders on the team, both as a rim protector and when he’s asked to switch onto players on the perimeter. Guarding smaller players was an area Jamie Dixon wanted to see Punch grow in and he’s made strides already in the first half of the season.
Punch started the year on the bench, but now has been inserted to the starting lineup at the power forward spot. He’s formed good defensive chemistry with Ernest Udeh and their presence inside is a big reason TCU is ranked No. 51 in scoring defense.
TCU needs another scorer
The Horned Frogs currently have three players averaging double figures with Reynolds, guard Vasean Allette and forward Trazarien White. Reynolds leads the team at 11.8 points while Allette and White chip in 10.9 and 10.4 points, respectively. It’s a solid trio, but the Horned Frogs will need more consistent production from some of their younger players to fix some of the offensive struggles.
Udeh is averaging a career-high 7.8 points per game, but he remains more of a lob threat than a post scorer at this point of his career. Wenzel seems like the most obvious candidate to fill that role, but after missing three games with a sprained ankle Wenzel has scored a total of three points in his first two games back. He may need more time to get back to his regular form.
Micah Robinson is another player that could grow into that role as the freshman has emerged as the second best shooter on the team behind Wenzel. In limited minutes Robinson is knocking down almost 38% of his 3s and he scored in double figures against Xavier and Arizona.
The Horned Frogs have options, but finding that next scorer is easier said than done.
