Three reasons why TCU will defeat or be upset by Arizona
With only three editions of Three Reasons Why left this season for TCU and it’s another special occasion this week when the Horned Frogs play their home finale against Arizona.
The Horned Frogs (6-4) have a chance to finish the year strong and set up momentum for the upcoming recruiting cycle headed into 2025. Arizona (4-6) needs two victories to reach a bowl game and salvage what’s been a disappointing debut season in the Big 12.
The game has some implications in the Big 12 title race as there’s a complete chaos scenario where the Horned Frogs can sneak into the picture. But a lot of dominoes need to fall before that becomes a real possibility.
For now, TCU will focus on getting to win No. 7 and improving its standing in the upcoming bowl season. Here are three reasons why TCU will beat or be upset by Arizona.
Three reasons why TCU will defeat Arizona
1. Confident offense: The Horned Frogs’ offense is operating at a high level behind the play of Josh Hoover and his wide receivers. On paper, Arizona hasn’t shown it has a defense that can slow down TCU’s passing attack. The Wildcats allow 28.3 points per game and six different teams have scored at least 30 points against Arizona including West Virginia and New Mexico.
TCU has scored 30 or more in three straight games and should hit that number again. If they do that likely means a victory as Arizona is 1-5 in those games where they allowed 30 or more points.
2. Healthy defensive line: TCU is getting healthy at the perfect time on defense against an offensive line that has struggled to protect the quarterback this season. Cooper McDonald, Markis Deal and Hakeem Ajijolaiya are all expected to be available against the Wildcats. Before he missed the Utah game, McDonald looked like the most impactful pass rusher TCU had while Deal has improved week to week.
With those two back and Ajijolaiya providing depth in the interior, the Horned Frogs should be able to take advantage of an offensive line that has allowed 41 sacks this season.
3. A regressing QB?: Noah Fifita looked like the next big star quarterback after being voted the Pac-12 Offensive Freshman of the Year and leading the Wildcats to double digit wins last season. However, Fifita hasn’t looked like the same player. His completion percentage is down and he’s already thrown more interceptions this season (11) than he did a year ago (6).
The protection up front hasn’t been as good and the Wildcats lost key players in the transfer portal after a head coaching change. Regardless of why, Fifita has taken a step back and that gives TCU an advantage with Hoover playing his best football.
Three reasons why Arizona will upset TCU
1. McMillan goes nuclear: Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan is projected to be a top-10 NFL Draft pick and a consensus All-American after another fantastic season. McMillan has all the attributes that great receivers have. He’s 6-foot-5 with speed, body control and an impressive catch radius.
McMillan already has games this season with over 200 and 300 yards receiving. That type of performance could lead Arizona to an unlikely upset in Fort Worth.
2. Turnover woes return: One of the Horned Frogs’ biggest issues this season has been turnovers, whether it be interceptions by Hoover or costly fumbles. According to TeamRankings.com TCU is tied for 122th in turnover margin per game, with the Horned Frogs losing the turnover battle by an average of one per game and on the season TCU has a -8 turnover margin.
If there’s one way for Arizona to make this a close game it’ll be to take advantage of any TCU turnovers.
3. Savion package stopped: The new package with Savion Williams in the backfield has helped unlocked more consistency with TCU’s offense. The Horned Frogs have some semblance of a running game with Williams getting carries and it’s also helped other running backs find running lanes as defenses focus on him.
Oklahoma State has some success keeping Williams in check as he had just five carries for 19. Williams did have a touchdown and a 16-yard carry which was more than enough to beat the Cowboys. If Arizona is able to replicate Oklahoma State’s success it could be problematic for TCU.
