Three reasons why TCU football will clinch a bowl berth or lose to Oklahoma State
Welcome back to another edition of Three Reasons Why. There’s no rivalry game this week for TCU, but that doesn’t mean Saturday’s matchup with Oklahoma State isn’t important.
The Horned Frogs can clinch a bowl berth with a win over the Cowboys and it’s also imperative that TCU doesn’t become the first team to lose a Big 12 game to a slumping Oklahoma State (3-6 overall, 0-6 in conference).
Despite their record, the Cowboys still return plenty of production from last year’s Big 12 runner-up team, including one of the best running backs in the country. TCU (5-4, 3-3) should win this game, but it won’t be easy.
Here’s three reasons why TCU will clinch a bowl berth or endure another ugly loss at home:
Three reasons why TCU will beat Oklahoma State
1. Alan Bowman: Assuming the 24-year-old quarterback gets the start, TCU will be facing a player that’s been prone to critical mistakes despite his wealth of experience. Bowman leads the Big 12 in interceptions and he’s thrown an interception in every game this season with the exception of the season opener.
There’s enough talent around Bowman to overcome his flaws at times, but his inability to protect the football is a big reason why Oklahoma State has underachieved. TCU must force a turnover or two early to take control of the game.
2. Surging Hoover? Sonny Dykes said that he believed Josh Hoover played maybe his best game as a Horned Frog in the narrow 37-34 win over Baylor. Hoover went 25-of-34 for 333 yards and two touchdowns with no turnovers. He should’ve had three touchdowns if Savion Williams hadn’t dropped a wide open 81-yard touchdown in the first half.
Hoover should be in line for another big game against a secondary that is allowing 255 yards per game.
3. A banged up Gordon? Any time you see a player’s numbers plunge the way Ollie Gordon’s have, it’s fair to wonder if they’re 100% healthy. Gordon’s stats and workload indicate a player that might be battling through nagging injuries or at the very least an offensive line that isn’t as good as it was a year ago.
Gordon has just two 100-yard games on the season, compared to having nine last year. He can’t be underestimated, but this doesn’t appear to be the same Gordon from last year and that bodes well for TCU.
Three reasons why TCU will be upset by Oklahoma State
1. Lack of depth: Gordon may be banged, but so is TCU on the defensive line. The Horned Frogs will be without defensive tackles Markis Deal and Hakeem Ajijolaiya and possibly top linebacker Cooper McDonald, who plays on the edge of the defensive line. Even when fully healthy TCU has struggled to stop the run, so how will they fare without two of their top interior defenders.
For a player like Gordon, the perfect way to break out of a slump is to face one of the Big 12’s worst rushing defenses that is now undermanned.
2. Lack of balance: The only Big 12 team worse at stopping the run than TCU is Oklahoma State. The Cowboys have allowed over 2,000 yards on the ground this season with opponents averaging almost six yards per carry. But will TCU be able to exploit this with the second worst rushing offense in the league? The Horned Frogs have been using Savion Williams as a primary rusher, which has worked the last few weeks.
But teams are slowly starting to adjust to the Wild Frog package and TCU needs one of its running backs to ease the load on Williams. So far the running backs haven’t been able to do so.
3. Talented receiver room: The issues with Bowman aside, the Cowboys have a talented receiver room that can generate chunk plays if Bowman can avoid throwing the ball to the other team. Brennan Presley was an All-Big 12 selection a year ago while De’Zhaun Stribling has emerged as one of the league’s most improved receivers. Rashod Owens is also capable of having big games.
TCU’s pass rush struggled against Baylor and Sawyer Robertson didn’t have much trouble finding open receivers. The Cowboys have a better set of receivers that could prove troublesome for a TCU secondary still down two corners.
This story was originally published November 8, 2024 at 4:00 AM.
