Analysis: Why TCU’s losing streak isn’t as dire as you think
If you’re beginning to panic after TCU lost its fourth straight game without Mike Miles Jr., the emotion is understandable.
It’s been frustrating to watch the Horned Frogs sputter without one of the best guards in the country. TCU went from blasting Kansas by 20 on the road to barely being able to make a free throw in the loss at Iowa State Wednesday night.
But as I said after the loss at Kansas State, don’t press the panic button just yet. Despite TCU’s slide, the Horned Frogs NCAA Tournament projections haven’t been altered much.
At their peak, TCU was projected to be as high as a fourth-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Leading bracketologists have TCU as a fifth or sixth-seed depending on where you look.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi is the most popular of the bracketologists and currently has TCU slotted as a No. 5 seed. Jerry Palm of CBS Sports projects the Horned Frogs to be a No. 6 seed.
Bracketologists.com is a site that keeps track of teams’ NCAA Tournament resumes and where they stack up in the NCAA NET Rankings. TCU is still in the Top 25 after Wednesday’s loss.
In other words, take a deep breath. The Horned Frogs are still in good position to land a high seed in March and TCU could be getting back Miles as soon as Saturday’s game vs. Oklahoma State.
An ESPN broadcaster said as much during the game vs. the Cyclones and Miles has been practicing this week. When he does return, TCU will have ample opportunities to pick up more quality wins.
That’s the beauty of the Big 12 this year, it’s the ultimate give-and-take league. You may have to endure a gauntlet of three straight ranked opponents like TCU just did, but you’ll have plenty of chances for signature wins.
Think about it, TCU will get Kansas, Texas and the Cowboys at home with road games at Texas Tech and Oklahoma to close the season.
Wins over a Kansas and Texas would obviously be massive, but the games at the Red Raiders and Sooners have value, too. With both in the Top 75 of the NET Rankings, a TCU road win would qualify as a Quad 1 win, the most valuable kind.
If the Horned Frogs are able to close the regular season 3-2, which is possible if Miles is back to his usual self, then TCU could easily jump right back to the seed line it was projected at when Miles went down during the Mississippi State game.
And that doesn’t include the Big 12 Tournament which will be another opportunity for more quality wins to boost TCU’s resume. That’s why it’s imperative to relax because even though the season is winding down, the chances for quality wins aren’t.
So, now that we’ve covered that let’s turn the page to the future and take on this question: What seed should TCU try to avoid?
Anything above a No. 6 or 7 seed would be a win for the Horned Frogs. With the parity this year in college basketball there won’t be much difference between facing a 12, 13 or 14-seed if TCU is able secure a top-five seed.
Things start to get dicey when you move down to the six line. The odds of the Horned Frogs having to play another Power Five opponent shoot up dramatically. Who are some potential 11 seeds? Palm has teams like Kentucky and Mississippi State as 11 seeds with teams like Arkansas and Wisconsin playing in one of the First Four games.
Lunardi has teams like Memphis and North Carolina on the 11 line. Those types of teams could give TCU trouble in a first-round game. Teams like North Carolina, Kentucky and Arkansas would have a talent advantage while a team like Memphis has a potential All-American in former TCU guard Kendric Davis.
Dropping down to a No. 7 seed and facing a 10 seed would also be a challenge. It would also mean the Horned Frogs would likely have to beat a No. 2 seed like a UCLA or Baylor to advance to the Sweet Sixteen.
Not impossible, but still daunting nonetheless. And yes, these projections will fluctuate greatly in the next three weeks or so, but the point remains the same. TCU’s overall tournament hopes are secure and when Miles returns there will be plenty of time to add more quality victories.
For the Horned Frogs it’s about taking advantage of those chances. TCU could’ve easily beaten Baylor or Oklahoma State on the road without Miles, but didn’t execute their gameplan or make simple plays like hitting free throws.
That has to change regardless of when Miles returns to the court or it won’t matter what seed TCU has in the NCAA Tournament.
