Three reasons why TCU football will roll or stumble at Baylor
It’s another rivalry week edition of three reasons why as TCU travels to Baylor with the opportunity to move to 11-0.
Since the epic 61-58 defeat at Baylor in 2014, the Horned Frogs have dominated the series recently with just one loss in the last seven games.
A year ago, TCU spoiled Baylor’s College Football Playoff chances by upsetting a top-five Bears team in Fort Worth. Many Baylor fans in Waco will find it fitting if the Bears return the favor on Saturday.
Baylor likely won’t compete for a Big 12 championship, but beating TCU and ending their perfect season and a place in the College Football Playoffs would be just as enjoyable for the Bears and their fans.
Here’s three reasons why that will or won’t happen:
Three reasons why TCU moves to 11-0
1. A struggling Shapen: Baylor quarterback Blake Shapen and the TCU defense are on two different trajectories headed into this matchup. Remove the wacky fumble that led to a Texas touchdown last week and TCU is only allowing 13.5 points per game in its last two outings.
Meanwhile Shapen has thrown five picks in his last four games and posted a quarterback rating of 16 and 30.6 in back-to-back games. Expect someone in the Horned Frogs secondary to come up with a turnover or two off of Shapen.
2. Not the same Baylor defense: TCU was one of the few teams to find success against an elite Baylor defense last year. The 2022 Bears defense isn’t the same as that unit. West Virginia and Oklahoma produced at least 499 yards of offense against Baylor and the Bears have allowed 30 or more points in four games this year with a record of only 1-3 in those games.
If the Horned Frogs can score 30 points, which they’ve done every week except against Texas, then that’ll likely result in a victory.
3. Lack of BU pass rush: At the root of why Baylor has taken a step back defensively is its pass rush. The Bears were second in the Big 12 with 44 sacks last season, but only have 19 this year. After the beating Max Duggan took in the win over the Longhorns, he should have more time against Baylor.
The Bears don’t give up a ton of yards through the air, but the secondary is giving up more touchdowns than last year. Duggan doesn’t need to throw for 300 yards for TCU to win, but if he gets 200, a few touchdowns and avoids being on the ground as much as he was against Texas then TCU will be in great shape.
Three reasons why Baylor will upset TCU
1. Frogs can’t repeat defensive performance: TCU shut down Bijan Robinson and Texas last week, but the task doesn’t get easier facing a Bears offense that is averaging 200 yards on the ground. The best way to avoid Shapen throwing the game away is trusting Richard Reese and Craig Williams to pick up yards on the ground and control the clock.
Can TCU stop another potent rushing attack?
2. Aranda the wizard: One reason Baylor coach Dave Aranda landed the job was his reputation as a defensive mastermind at LSU and Wisconsin. He showed how elite his units can be last year. Even with the Baylor defense taking a step back, Aranda has the type of mind that can come up with a solid gameplan to slow down TCU similar to what former head coach Gary Patterson was able to help Texas do last week.
If Aranda can get the unit to play like it’s 2021, even for just a game, then this one will be a lot more difficult for TCU.
3. Duggan’s come back to Earth: Max Duggan was playing like a Heisman Trophy contender most of the season, but hasn’t enjoyed the same level of production the last two weeks. Duggan was held under 200 yards against Texas Tech and Texas and hasn’t been much of a threat with his legs. Teams are starting to send more and more pressure at Duggan to force him to make quicker decisions and fit balls in tighter windows.
He hasn’t looked as comfortable doing so and if Baylor uses a similar strategy and is able to hold him under 200 yards passing again, then TCU could be in trouble.
This story was originally published November 18, 2022 at 5:00 AM.
