Steven Johnson: An early look at TCU’s next opponent, Baylor
Things won’t get much easier for TCU as the Horned Frogs follow up their trip to Austin with a trip to Baylor on Saturday.
After Saturday’s 17-10 win in Austin, TCU earned a berth into the Big 12 championship, but there’s still the College Football Playoff hanging in the balance.
Many believe that a 12-1 Big 12 champion would be left out of the CFP equation, so the margin of error remains razor thin for TCU if it wants to add another historic achievement to the season.
The matchup between TCU and the Bears is also ironic because Baylor was in the same position last year when it traveled to Fort Worth. Baylor was No. 5 in the country and eventually won the Big 12 title, but the 30-28 upset loss to TCU likely kept it out of the playoffs.
You know the Bears are itching to return the favor.
Here’s four more things to know about the matchup:
A struggling Shapen
You can understand why Baylor coach Dave Aranda bet on Blake Shapen after the quarterback had a near perfect game to lead the Bears over Oklahoma State in the conference championship last year. Starter Gerry Bohanon left after the spring and headed to South Florida, clearing the way for Shapen to be the leader of the quarterback room.
Shapen hasn’t been able to build off that title game performance as he’s a middle-of-the-pack conference quarterback. While Baylor has gone 3-1 in its last four games, Shapen has thrown five interceptions and has posted a quarterback rating below 31 in back-to-back games.
He’s had two 300-yard games, but both were losses. If Shapen is forced to carry the load for Baylor offensively then it likely means something has gone wrong for the Bears. It doesn’t mean he’s not a capable player, but Shapen will be far from the best quarterback TCU has seen defensively.
An emerging talent at RB
With Shapen less effective than anticipated, Baylor has leaned more on the ground game. Freshman Richard Reese was impressive in wins with 186 yards against Kansas and 148 against Texas Tech. He also had four touchdowns.
Against Oklahoma, it was Craig Williams’ time to shine as he rushed for 192 yards and two scores against the outmatched Sooners defense. Qualan Jones is another capable back and has six touchdowns on the year. Between the trio, they’ve combined for 24 touchdowns on the year.
The Bears are averaging 199.6 rushing yards per game. While they don’t have a Kendre Miller or Bijan Robinson, there’s enough talent in the backfield to make TCU sweat if they don’t bring the same intensity as last week.
Defense has taken a step back
Baylor had one of the top defenses in the country as the Bears had a top-10 scoring defense in 2021. There’s been regression across the board as the Bears are allowing about a touchdown more than they did a year ago. The Bears remain pretty good at forcing turnovers as the secondary has picked off the second most passes in the Big 12.
The biggest difference is Baylor’s third-down defense. The Bears were second in the conference last year at getting stops on third down, but have plummeted to ninth. Teams are converting nearly 46% of their third downs and Kansas State went 8-of-13 in its blowout win over the Bears Saturday.
Baylor allowed a team to score 30 points just once last year and it was TCU. Four opponents have scored 30 or more this year. It’s not a bad defense, but it’s far from the dominant unit from 2021.
Names to know on defense
The Baylor defense is a unit lacking a bit of star power as no player jumps off the page when watching the film or checking out the stats. There are some good pieces sprinkled in across the unit though. Safety Christian Morgan is tied for second in the Big 12 with three interceptions in just eight games.
Fellow safety Al Walcott leads the team in tackles with 66 and has nine tackles for a loss. He’s an intriguing chess piece for Aranda to move around. Dillon Doyle is a thumper at linebacker with 63 tackles and two interceptions. Garmon Randolph is the team’s best pass rusher with 4.5 sacks, good for top-10 in the Big 12.
12 players have combined for a sack this year, but Baylor is only eighth in the league with 19 sacks this year. Corner Lorando Johnson is graded as the best cover man by Pro Football Focus along with fellow safety Devin Lemear.
