Steven Johnson: An early look No. 7 TCU’s next opponent, Texas Tech
The final month of the regular season is here and TCU can see the finish line with a possible appearance in the Big 12 Championship Game in sight.
Before the Horned Frogs get there, they have to navigate a November slate against its three in-state rivals starting with Texas Tech on Saturday.
Fox’s Big Noon Kickoff will be in Fort Worth to check out No. 7 TCU, whose national ranking could change after Tuesday’s release of the College Football Playoff rankings.
While Sonny Dykes is off to a historic start in his first season at the helm for TCU, Tech is also led by first-year head coach Joey McGuire.
The Red Raiders play hard and picked up a signature win over Texas earlier in the year, but this is still a 4-4 team that has lost three of its last four games. The latest result was a 45-17 defeat to Baylor at home this past Saturday.
The Horned Frogs are favored by more than a touchdown and will look for a strong performance to start the most important stretch of the year.
Here’s four things to know about the Red Raiders:
Shaky QB situation
Injuries have taken a toll on the Texas Tech quarterback room. Tyler Shough won the job in the preseason, but was injured in the first game against Murray State. Then Donovan Smith took over and led the Red Raiders to the win over Texas and went 2-2 before he dealt with shoulder soreness.
Then true freshman Behren Morton got his chance to lead the offense with the last three starts. Tech is 1-2 in those games. All three quarterbacks played against Baylor and all three turned the ball over showing how bleak things are right now. It’s unclear who will start against TCU. Smith has the best numbers, but he’s thrown eight interceptions and been sacked almost 20 times.
Morton is the future, but struggled against Baylor and tossed three interceptions. Maybe he’s not ready. Shough was sacked three times in limited action against the Bears as well. McGuire told reporters Monday that Morton got the first snaps at practice and will likely get them again on Tuesday.
Dominant edge rusher
The Red Raiders have struggled mightily on defense, but they do have a difference maker in Tyree Wilson. According to Pro Football Focus, Wilson leads the Power Five in quarterback pressures 41. The site also lists Wilson as a potential Top 15 pick in the upcoming NFL draft.
Wilson leads Tech with 6.5 sacks and 11.5 tackles for loss. Prior to the Baylor game he had a sack in five straight games. His individual brilliance hasn’t been able to mask the weaknesses of the unit overall, but Wilson is a game-changer that can make life tough on Max Duggan if he’s not accounted for.
Pass-happy offense
If you want to see a true Air Raid offense, then you’ll get one with Texas Tech. According to TeamRankings.com, the Red Raiders lead the country in passing attempts per game with just over 50. In 2021 that number was only 31. Even the shuffling of the quarterbacks hasn’t stopped the pass attempts and that won’t change against TCU.
As for the weapons, Texas Tech has distributed the ball really well. Twelve players on the team have caught at least 10 passes. The offense doesn’t rely on feeding any particular player. Xavier White leads the team in receptions (33) and yards (453) and is tied for a team-high three receiving touchdowns. Jerand Bradley is another name to watch with three touchdowns and 403 yards.
The Red Raiders will try to keep teams honest with their run game. Tech hasn’t been great in this area and averages less than four yards per attempt. Only one time this year has a Tech running back had more than 100 yards in a game. SaRodrick Thompson and Tahj Brooks will get most of the carries and their numbers are almost even. Thompson has 89 carries, 435 yards and three touchdowns. Brooks has six scores on 86 carries with 420 yards. TCU has seen more talented offenses, but the Red Raiders average 34 points a game.
Another thing to note about the offense is how aggressive it is on fourth down. Tech has gone for it on fourth down 36 times, the next closet team in the Big 12 is Baylor at 27. The Red Raiders are fifth in converting those opportunities. The Red Raiders will gamble and take their chances to keep TCU’s offense off the field.
A defense that’s struggled
Ironically, Texas Tech’s defensive numbers are similar to TCU’s. The Horned Frogs are better against the run and have a slightly better scoring defense while the Red Raiders have allowed the second-fewest passing yards in the Big 12 and are allowing just 11 more yards per game than Kansas State.
It sounds like a decent defense right, so what’s the problem? Why is Tech allowing almost 30 points per game? The offense hasn’t helped the unit out as the Red Raiders have one of the worst turnover margins in the country. The offense has turned it over 18 times including 15 interceptions. The offense has been good for about two turnovers a game and the defense regularly finds itself in short fields. The aggression on fourth down also has backfired at times.
Texas Tech also has the worst red zone defense in the Big 12, allowing scores on 28 of 30 attempts for their opponents. The Red Raiders have actually done an okay job of keeping teams out of the end zone with almost half of those scores being field goals.
The Red Raiders have a Top 50 graded defense by PFF, take that for what it’s worth. Even if the defense is a bit better than most think, the Red Raiders have still allowed at least 34 points four times and are 1-3 in those games.
Other names to know are Tony Bradford Jr. who is second on the team in sacks with 3.5 and leading tackler Krishon Merriweather who has 67 tackles on the year.
