Steven Johnson: Why TCU will defeat or stumble against No. 18 Oklahoma
The highly anticipated matchup vs. No. 18 Oklahoma is almost here and TCU is ready for what the program is considering a measuring-stick game.
It’s the first ranked opponent of the Sonny Dykes era and one of the top teams in the Big 12. While Dykes believes all games have the same value, there’s no doubt this would be a statement win, even if it would be the Sooners’ second straight loss.
Oklahoma has NFL talent across the roster including wide receiver Marvin Mims and defensive end Reggie Grimes. Dillon Gabriel has made a strong case as being the top quarterback in the Big 12.
Including that trio, we’ve already examined some of the top players for Oklahoma and how TCU will approach slowing them down.
Now it’s about how the actual game will play out.
With that in mind it’s another week of three reasons why, with this week’s being the ranked edition:
Three reasons why TCU will knock off the Sooners
1. A fast start: Based off the last two games, whatever ailed TCU in the first half against Colorado seems to be an aberration. The Horned Frogs scored touchdowns on four of their first five possessions against SMU. Six of their first seven drives against Tarleton resulted in points. The only one that didn’t came as a result of a missed field goal.
Why does that matter with Oklahoma? Because the Sooners have shown a tendency to start slow. Against Kent State, the Sooners trailed in the first half 3-0 before a late touchdown before halftime. Kansas State jumped on the Sooners with a 14-0 lead that Oklahoma could never quite catch up to. A 14-point lead won’t be enough alone to beat the Sooners, but it definitely beats the alternative.
2. QB run game: One way to get past the multi-faceted Oklahoma defense is to attack it with numbers. That’s where the quarterback run game with Max Duggan can come into play. You gain a blocker with designed quarterback runs and that could help create running lanes for Duggan. With Chandler Morris back, the coaching staff may be more open to using Duggan’s legs more in the game plan.
Adrian Martinez rushed for 148 yards in the Wildcats’ upset win. Kent State quarterback Collin Schlee gained 74 yards and averaged almost five yards per carry even after you adjust for sacks. TCU can have success there and even if OU keys on Duggan that should just create more opportunities for Kendre Miller and Emari Demercado.
3. TCU matches OU’s explosiveness: Marvin Mims is one of the best receivers in the country and Eric Gray has been an ultra productive running back for Oklahoma this season. However, the case could be made that TCU has more home run hitters. Derius Davis leads the team with four touchdowns from scrimmage and can score from anywhere.
Quentin Johnston had a career day in 2021 against Oklahoma with 175 yards and three touchdowns. It would be poetic if his breakout game this season came against the Sooners. Kendre Miller and Emari Demercado both average better than 6.5 yards per carry. They’re a threat to take it to the house on every carry. There aren’t many offenses that can match Oklahoma’s, but TCU is one of them.
Three reasons why TCU will suffer its first loss
1. Lack of a pass rush: The pass rush remains a question mark for the Horned Frogs even after producing three sacks against SMU. Sonny Dykes said he believes Oklahoma’s offensive line is the strength of the team and that could be problematic for the Horned Frogs. Center Andrew Raym and guard Chris Murray were an All-Big 12 players last year and right tackle Wanya Morris is one of the highest-graded linemen in the country according to Pro Football Focus.
Generating pressure against that front will be tough, but not impossible as Oklahoma has given up eight sacks. Sacks are just part of the equation though. If Dillon Gabriel has time in the pocket, you can live with a sack or two. If TCU can’t consistently bring it, whether it results in a sack or not, Gabriel can carve up the defense.
2. Can’t contain OU’s pass rush: The one thing the Sooners do well on defense is get after the quarterback with Reggie Grimes and Ethan Downs. That duo is going to the biggest test for TCU tackles Brandon Coleman and Andrew Coker. TCU allowed five sacks against SMU. Dykes said that it was about 50/50 on the offensive line and Duggan.
There were times where Duggan had time, but wanted to avoid a throw into tight coverage. There were other times where the offensive line wasn’t able to handle the blitz or stunts by the defensive line. Brent Venables and OU are going to throw everything at TCU defensively. If the Horned Frogs can’t protect Duggan, then it’ll be difficult to beat the Sooners.
3. TCU struggles situationally: Typically games like this are decided by little things like red zone offense and defense or who’s able to get off the field on third downs more often. This is an area where TCU has struggled so far. According to TeamRankings.com, which only grades games between two FBS programs, TCU is allowing conversions on third down nearly 46% of the time.
The Horned Frogs are middle of the pack in red zone defense. With OU’s firepower, there’s a good chance the Sooners will have a quick strike touchdown or two. The bigger problem won’t be those explosive plays, it’ll be those longer drives where the Sooners are able to keep TCU’s offense on the sideline. SMU converted better than 50% of its third and fourth downs against TCU. If OU has similar success, the Horned Frogs will struggle to keep up with Oklahoma.
