Steven Johnson: Three reasons TCU could roll or stumble at Colorado
The Sonny Dykes era begins. All the preseason predictions and chatter go out the window as the focus is finally on the on field product.
TCU will start the season in a hostile environment Friday with a 9 p.m. kickoff at rebuilding Colorado. The latest oddsmakers have the Horned Frogs as a two-touchdown favorite.
The line was originally hovering around 10, but jumped earlier this week. That should be an indication that the expectation is TCU has a good chance to roll past what could be one of the Pac-12’s weaker teams.
When you compare the two rosters on papers, it’s certainly a winnable game for TCU. But it is a road game at another Power Five school. It could be the most electric atmosphere Colorado will have all season.
Why TCU should start the season with a bang and why they could stumble out of the gates:
Why TCU will beat Colorado
1. Too many weapons: When it comes to firepower at the skill positions, TCU has an abundance starting with Quentin Johnston. A potential first-round draft pick, Johnston is looking to build off his 634 yards in 2021. He’ll be joined by two receivers in Taye Barber and Derius Davis. Each had 30 catches and more than 500 yards last season. Colorado prefers to play man defense in coverage, but it might be too much to ask of the Buffaloes secondary that starts four sophomores at corner, nickel and strong safety.
Kendre Miller and Emari Demercado combined for more than 1,000 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns while sharing the backfield with Zach Evans. Emani Bailey and Trent Battle only add to the depth at running back. Whether by air or on the ground, TCU has too many weapons for Colorado to contain.
2. Edge at quarterback: Chandler Morris is the likely starter. Max Duggan and Sam Jackson will also get their opportunities. Whether it’s Duggan or Morris, they both should have the edge of Brendon Lewis. Last season, Lewis had a quarterback rating of 43 (99th in the country) and completed less than 60% of his throws.
3. The offensive line: The MVP of preseason camp, everyone from the players to the coaching staff raved about the performance of the offensive line. With Alan Ali at center and Steve Avila at left guard, TCU has two players with all-conference honors on their resume. The Colorado defensive line is experienced, but was last in the Pac-12 in sacks and allowed 180 yards on the ground per game.
TCU’s offensive line should be able to control the line of scrimmage.
Why TCU might get upset
1. TCU’s QB rotation backfires: Dykes and company have a solid plan with how they’ll use all three quarterbacks. However, anytime you have that many chefs in the kitchen something can go wrong. Maybe a fumble in the wildcat package with Duggan and Jackson? Maybe Morris throws a pick early? How will any of them respond to potential adversity knowing the next man is still gunning for the job?
2. The run defense is still a problem: As bad as Colorado was at defending the run, TCU was worse. The Horned Frogs allowed teams to average more than 200 yards on the ground and allowed almost six yards per carry. If you’re the Buffaloes, it might be ideal to let Alex Fontenot and Deion Smith test TCU right up the middle, where true freshman Damonic Williams is starting at nose tackle.
If Colorado can control the clock and tempo, it can keep TCU’s offense off the field.
3. TCU isn’t as healthy as expected: The Horned Frogs initial depth chart featured a few ‘ors’ by names that left some fans curious. Kendre Miller, Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson and Bud Clark are all expected to be some of the top contributors for this year’s team. The trio all spent some portion of camp dealing with injuries. Dykes said Hodges-Tomlinson is good to go, but what about Clark and Miller?
Miller being compromised could be overcome thanks to TCU’s depth, but Clark’s impact at safety could be missed. It might just be enough for Colorado to be in the game late.
This story was originally published September 1, 2022 at 9:23 AM.
