Steven Johnson: Why TCU could have a better season than expected
Most of the college football landscape isn’t high on TCU’s chances to contend in the Big 12 this season.
Conference media picked the Horned Frogs to finish seventh, ahead of West Virginia, Texas Tech and Kansas. CBSSports polled seven of their college football insiders and five picked TCU to finish seventh or worse.
ESPN picked the Horned Frogs to finish eighth. BleacherReport had the Horned Frogs at sixth with a 6-6 record. See where I’m going with this?
Because Horned Frogs finished 5-7 last year and have a new head coach, it’s not a surprise industry pundits aren’t bullish on TCU in Sonny Dykes’ first year. But unlike most first year coaches Dykes isn’t walking into a program that’s barren and needs to be restocked with talent.
TCU brings back its four leading receivers including a potential All-American in Quentin Johnston. Two players on the offensive line have earned all-conference honors in their careers. Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson is probably the best defensive back in the league.
Whether it’s Chandler Morris or Max Duggan, the Horned Frogs should have a quarterback that’s in the upper half of the conference.
There are questions, like how the run defense and pass rush will improve. The depth at linebacker and in the secondary is a bit of a concern, but there’s enough building blocks for TCU to be better than expected.
Here’s a complete season prediction:
At Colorado, 9 p.m. Friday
Starting on the road in a primetime game is going to be more challenging than your typical season opener, but there’s a reason the Horned Frogs are favored to win by two touchdowns. Colorado lacks the experience to hang with TCU’s receivers and doesn’t have the pass rush to make life uncomfortable for Morris or Duggan.
Result: Win
Vs. Tarleton State, Sept. 10
There’s not much to say about this one except it’s the home opener for TCU. The game should offer a glimpse at some of the upcoming players like true freshmen Major Everhart and Jordan Hudson. This might be the game where the athletic Sam Jackson gets the most run at quarterback.
Result: Win
At SMU, Sept. 24
This is where the schedule starts to get interesting. From 1999 to 2018, TCU lost just twice against the Mustangs. But led by Dykes, SMU has taken the last two games of this series. It was one of the reasons TCU brought Dykes across the Metroplex. The Mustangs should be potent offensively led by Tanner Mordecai.
It should be the TCU defense’s first measuring stick game. SMU has to replace some key personnel including Alan Ali, who is now at TCU and three of its four leading receivers that are now in the NFL. The bye week should also be an advantage for the Horned Frogs as they’ll have an extra week to prepare and get healthy while SMU will be coming off a road game at Maryland.
It’ll be close, exciting game, but a well-rested and motivated TCU team should snap the losing streak.
Result: Win
Vs. Oklahoma, Oct. 1
It’s very tempting to go with an upset bid here. Oklahoma will travel to Fort Worth after playing a Kansas State team that always gives them fits and a week before the Red River Rivalry with Texas. TCU had no problem piling up yards in Norman last year with more than 500. There’s also no Caleb Williams to worry about this year after following Lincoln Riley to USC.
It’s tempting, but the Sooners still might have the best quarterback in the conference with Dillon Gabriel and should be better defensively under Brent Venables. This will be the best offensive line TCU has faced and I’m not sure how the front seven will hold up.
Result: Loss
At Kansas, Oct. 8
Last year’s matchup was closer than any fans would’ve wanted as TCU needed a last-second field goal to survive the Jayhawks. Jalon Daniels had his best game of the season against the Horned Frogs and returns as the starter once again. The Jayhawks bring in 15 transfers with a class that was ranked No. 21 by 247Sports.
An improved Kansas team will once again push TCU in a game that might not be the prettiest, but TCU will do enough to get out of Lawrence with a win.
Result: Win
Vs. Oklahoma State, Oct. 15
The Cowboys delivered TCU a beatdown last year as TCU fell 63-17 in Stillwater. Oklahoma State rushed for 447 yards and accounted for almost 700 yards of total offense. The Cowboys lost the architect of their imposing defense as Jim Knowles is now at Ohio State.
Oklahoma State also lost some key pieces in the secondary like Tanner McCallister to Ohio State and Jarrick Bernard-Converse to LSU. TCU has knocked off Oklahoma State the last two times the Cowboys have come to Fort Worth. TCU will be more productive on offense and make this one much closer, but can’t quite get over the hump.
Result: Loss
Vs Kansas State, Oct. 22
TCU has failed to score more than 17 points in their last four games against the Wildcats. It’s no wonder Kansas State has won three in a row against the Horned Frogs. The arrival of Nebraska transfer Adrian Martinez makes Kansas State a little more dynamic as the Wildcats already have All-American Deuce Vaughn at running back.
With Dykes and company scheming up an effective gameplan, TCU will score more than 21 points and force the error-prone Martinez into a game-turning turnover once or twice.
Result: Win
At West Virginia, Oct. 29
Playing in Morgantown has been a challenge for TCU since West Virginia entered the conference. TCU has lost the last three times there. The two times the Horned Frogs have won there, each victory was just by a point.
The game could come down to the health of Georgia quarterback transfer J.T. Daniels. If he’s good to go, the struggles in Morgantown will continue.
Result: Loss
Vs. Texas Tech, Nov. 5
After trading barbs over social media regarding NIL, this is a game that will get both fanbases fired up. There’s also a good chance for fireworks as the two teams combined for 83 points in a convincing TCU victory. Max Duggan only attempted 10 passes as TCU used the ground game to batter the Red Raiders for almost 400 yards.
Expect another TCU offensive showcase this time.
Result: Win
At Texas, Nov. 12
This may or may not be an upset depending on how the season goes for the Longhorns, who once again are receiving plenty of hype. Bijan Robinson rushed for over 200 yards to lead Texas to a close win last year. He’ll be dangerous once again, but TCU will counter with an over the top passing game that should give Texas fits.
With former head coach Gary Patterson on staff, plenty of players will have this game circled. It’ll be the defining win of Dykes’ first year.
Result: Win
At Baylor, Nov. 19
TCU stunned Baylor last year with one of the best performances in program history by Chandler Morris. While TCU has won six of the last seven, I think the cerebral Dave Aranda will have a gameplan to slow down the Horned Frogs. Winning games back-to-back at Austin and in Waco is a tough sell.
Result: Loss
Vs. Iowa State, Nov. 26
It’s hard to know what to expect from the Cyclones as they have to replace some of the best players in their program history with Brock Purdy, Breece Hall and Charlie Kolar now gone. They all were big reasons Iowa State has won three in a row against TCU. With them gone, TCU closes out the season on a high note.
Result: Win
Final record: 8-4 overall, 5-4 in Big 12
This story was originally published August 31, 2022 at 8:58 AM.
