What bowl game will TCU end up in? We break it down along with the rest of the Big 12
TCU football got over the .500 mark with an upset victory over then-No. 19 Oklahoma State on Saturday. The Horned Frogs finished Big 12 play with a 5-4 record and are in position to get to 6-4 overall against Louisiana Tech on Saturday.
Win or lose on Saturday, TCU will be bowling once again after falling short of eligibility last season. The NCAA has waived the bowl requirements for this COVID-shortened season, but TCU would still like to play in the best bowl possible.
As far as the Big 12 is concerned, it is guaranteed only one team in a New Year’s Six game this year as the Sugar Bowl is a College Football Playoff semifinal site. The winner of the Big 12 title game between Oklahoma and Iowa State would punch its ticket to a New Year’s Six game.
After that, the committee could place the Big 12’s runner-up in a New Year’s Six game. Once those games are set, the Big 12’s bowl affiliates would pick in the following order: Alamo Bowl (San Antonio), Cheez-It Bowl (Orlando, Fla.), Texas Bowl (Houston), Liberty Bowl (Memphis), Guaranteed Rate Bowl (Phoenix) and the First Responder Bowl (Dallas).
The bowl games are eligible to pick any Big 12 school, regardless of conference standings.
What’s the best hope for the Frogs? We look at the three most likely destinations and offer our projections for every Big 12 program:
Texas Bowl
When: Dec. 31, 7 p.m.
Where: NRG Stadium, Houston
Fan situation: The bowl game has yet to announce whether fans will be allowed. The Texans are allowing 13,300 fans (approximately 20% capacity) to attend home games at NRG Stadium.
TCU’s path in: This would seem like the best bowl game TCU can hope for at this point. The Frogs have played in Houston-based bowl games three times in the Gary Patterson era, losing in 2001 and winning in 2005 and 2007. But they haven’t returned to Houston for a bowl game since joining the Big 12 in 2012.
It would make sense for the Texas Bowl to target TCU if it defeats Louisiana Tech on Saturday. The Frogs would be a team playing their best ball, winning five of the final six games. And, given various COVID protocols, this would be an easy game for TCU to get to and in a location where the program has recruited a countless number of players.
A realistic scenario could see the Big 12 winner (OU or Iowa State) going to a New Year’s Six game with the runner-up landing at the Alamo Bowl. The Cheez-It Bowl would then jump at an opportunity to bring a brand name such as Texas to its bowl.
That would leave the Texas Bowl with schools such as Oklahoma State and TCU. If TCU wins on Saturday, it may be a more attractive option given its strong finish and head-to-head victory over Oklahoma State.
Liberty Bowl
When: Dec. 31, 3 p.m.
Where: Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium (Memphis)
Fan situation: As of Monday afternoon, the bowl game is planning to allow fans to attend.
TCU’s path in: If the Texas Bowl opts for Oklahoma State, TCU would be among the candidates for the Liberty Bowl. The Frogs played in this game in 2016, falling to Georgia.
Like the Texas Bowl, this bowl game is slated for a Big 12-SEC matchup.
A couple bowl projections have TCU in this game facing Kentucky or Tennessee.
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
When: Dec. 26, 9:15 p.m.
Where: Chase Field (Phoenix)
Fan situation: The bowl game announced late last week that it would be closed to fans.
TCU’s path in: The home of the original “Cheez-It Bowl.” Who wouldn’t want to see TCU play another interception-filled, low-scoring game?
TCU could fall to this game if the Texas Bowl (Oklahoma State) and Liberty Bowl (West Virginia) opt for other teams. However, if TCU wins on Saturday, it’s hard to see a team that’s won five of its final six falling here.
But it wouldn’t be the worst-case scenario as the bowl treats the entire program like they do the Fiesta Bowl teams.
The Star-Telegram’s projection
Here’s where we see every Big 12 playing its bowl game:
Cotton Bowl: Oklahoma
Alamo Bowl: Iowa State
Cheez-It Bowl: Texas
Texas Bowl: TCU
Liberty Bowl: Oklahoma State
Guaranteed Rate: West Virginia
First Responder Bowl: Kansas State
This story was originally published December 8, 2020 at 5:00 AM.
