2026 will finally bring answers on Trump, Democrats in Texas and beyond | Opinion

I seem to recall something called “slow periods in the news.” They used to feature some type of breather between spikes in big, dramatic events. Today, whether through the nature of events themselves or the never-ending news cycles in an era of cable TV and nonstop online content, issues seem cranked up to 11 on a daily basis.

So, as 2025 gives way to 2026, this would ordinarily be one of those spaces to get our heads above water. President Donald Trump is about to wrap up his first year, and the midterm elections are a year away. But the air is already filled with speculation on who the nominees might be in the presidential race of 2028. Lots of people express fatigue over the length of our campaign cycles, but there are always enough eyes and ears and clicks to fuel an entire industry of nonstop political news and the ensuing debates across a broad landscape of issues.

So, for our last visit of 2025, let’s examine what awaits us in next year’s headlines.

Since Republicans hold the White House and both houses of Congress, the prime task in 2026 is to avoid messing things up. The Senate majority is not filibuster-proof, and the House majority is so thin that a tiny band of rogue actors can block things Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson want to do. Republicans want to expand their majorities in both houses, and that prospect hangs primarily on two issues — the economy, which will help them if it is strong, and border policies, which will help them if the Trump approach is as popular as he thinks it is.

Is it? The MAGA base is on board with ICE seeking mass deportations and has nodded in approval as drug boats are blasted out of the Caribbean before their poisons can reach our shores. But are independents going to smile on these bold approaches? The conventional wisdom was that tough tactics like this were a big part of why Trump won. But the actual imagery of immigration raids and exploding boats has made some folks go wobbly. These policies won’t change, so get ready for a referendum on how popular they truly are.

The new year will also feature additional attention to Vice President JD Vance, who has already been endorsed for president in 2028 by Erika Kirk in her new role as leader of Turning Point USA, the organization founded by her late husband, Charlie. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, often mentioned as a White House hopeful, has stated that he will not run if Vance does.

This has sparked ripples of pushback from Republicans who would prefer a busy, vigorous primary. “No one likes coronations” has been a familiar claim. They should relax. There will surely be competition for Vance, especially if the second half of the Trump term is marked by setbacks.

Democrats debate how much to focus on Trump

And Democrats will seek to engineer those setbacks at every turn. They will offer an alternative to Trumpism in every midterm race, making their collective effort a gamble. If enough voters are developing Trump fatigue, Democrats can win back both the House and Senate. If not, they will pay a price for putting too many eggs in the anti-Trump basket.

Some Democrats are advising their party to turn away from laser-focused Trump revulsion and hatch constructive new ideas on the economy, health care and global affairs. Will that more thoughtful strategy keep up with the raw energy of the party’s young guns, who favor a sharper, more aggressive approach?

The questions of Trump’s continuing influence and the smartest Democratic response will get a test in Texas’ U.S. Senate primary in March. Republicans John Cornyn, Ken Paxton and Wesley Hunt will compete over who is the most reliable Trump loyalist, while U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico make their pitches to lead a new generation of Senate Democrats.

Hunt, a Houston-area congressman, and Paxton, the three-term state attorney general, are both identifying gaps in incumbent Cornyn’s harmony with Trump, accusing him of political expediency likely to evaporate when Trump leaves office, if not the day after the election.

But Cornyn and his allies have spent a ton of money on ads highlighting his support of Trump in this second term, and he does not let an interview segment pass without throwing some love toward the White House. Meanwhile, Cornyn’s budget for negative ads has turned away from the personal attacks on Paxton that filled the summer toward an offensive against Hunt as a thinly qualified pretender with a spotty voting attendance record in the House.

Hunt’s conservatism is hard to question, but his chances are slim in a race that contains two huge names with large supporter bases. Nonetheless, his October decision to enter the race virtually guarantees a runoff, meaning we will still be treated to a Cornyn vs. Paxton brawl lasting until the end of May.

Could Republican primary fight open door for Texas Democrats in Senate race?

Texas Democrats believe that all of the energy spent on Republican squabbling will improve their chances for a Senate win in November. That logic can sometimes apply, but it seems unlikely in Texas, where the GOP primary will indeed be a test of willingness to advance the Trump agenda, meaning the eventual victor will be carrying the fire for a president who won by 14 points in 2024.

That will be an uphill climb for either Crockett or Talarico, but along the way, Texas will be a laboratory for an experiment that the national party will observe closely. As older, more traditional Democrats advise a return to a less caustic approach, a Crockett primary win may be viewed as a signal to put more pedal to the metal in other states.

2026 will be filled with developments offering clues as to the popularity of the Trump agenda and Democrats’ ability to counteract it. The November midterms will instantly be analyzed either as evidence that Republicans have wind in their sails as they pivot toward anointing a Trump successor or a sign that his tank has run dry and Democrats are poised for big gains and a return to the White House.

That will be the landscape as 2026 turns into 2027, and once again, there will be no slow periods in the news.

Mark Davis hosts a morning radio show in Dallas-Fort Worth on 660-AM and at 660amtheanswer.com. Follow him on X: @markdavis.