Is Jasmine Crockett headed for Senate? How Texas race could unfold | Opinion
It would be tempting to question the value of any analysis of Jasmine Crockett’s Senate prospect from a conservative perspective. What could I possibly bring to the table when I obviously have no intention of voting for her?
That’s precisely the point. My wishes for Republican success at all levels should contain some understanding of the opposition. Too often, observations made from within either party are corrupted by personal connections, individual agendas and lack of objectivity. There is no greater objectivity than an examination from a vantage point completely on the outside.
So, as Crockett reaches for the brass ring of the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate, it’s time for me to pivot from my usual criticism of her latest rant to evaluating whether she is going to face the Republican nominee I will vote for and whether she can win in November.
I doubted that she would get into a race that already contained Colin Allred, a veteran of Congress with experience, however futile, of running a Senate campaign. His presence, along with that of state Rep. James Talarico, who has shown an early acumen for vigorous fundraising, made for a steep uphill climb, even with Crockett’s notable national footprint as a harsh Trump critic.
But on the morning of the Dec. 8 deadline for candidates to file to run, with a suspenseful announcement of her plans scheduled that afternoon, news broke of Allred’s decision to leave the Senate race. He’ll run for U.S. House in Dallas County instead.
Did party bosses maneuver to clear the Senate field for Crockett? Did donors make promises to Allred to lure him away from a race that would have been a challenge in the primaries and a likely loss in the general and toward a House race he can actually win? If so, it would be far from the first example of political bigwigs maneuvering for a perceived greater good.
That greater good for Democrats is three months of Crockett on the statewide campaign trail clobbering President Donald Trump and smearing conservatives with the zest and gusto that have made her a liberal media star. This is not to be sneezed at. There are plenty of Democrats taking shots at Trump all day, every day, but they don’t get invited onto TV news segments with Crockett’s impressive regularity.
Even more noteworthy are the ample minutes she has rung up on networks that oppose her at every turn. There are days when I wonder what Fox News would do if they didn’t have a half-dozen segments a day devoted to Crockett’s latest harangue.
Are those conservative outlets dismantling her points at length? Of course, but in so doing they have helped elevate her to the lofty status of seeming to take up rent-free space in the minds of American conservatives.
Identifying her propensities for race-baiting and personal smears takes place in the conservative bubble. Such talents have vaulted Crockett to the apex of liberal magnetism, where hatred of Trump and reflex laments of white supremacy are proven catnip.
So now, the question becomes: Can Crockett’s current status as a viral figure of the moment be translated into a sufficient number of votes across Texas to earn a shot at replacing Sen. John Cornyn?
Fairly or not, she enters the primary as the instant frontrunner. Talarico, who represents a Round Rock-based district, brings an interesting skill set and a growing campaign chest, but he can only dream of the number of clicks and cable segments that Crockett will attract. But this does not guarantee victory. Her audience is no longer the big-city bicoastal viewers of CNN and MSNOW; it is a state full of Democrats who skew differently. Many Texas Democrats do not share Crockett’s taste for porous borders, and many Democrats own the guns she has demonized.
The only solid prediction for the primary season is that it will be entertaining. By March 3, Democrats will assess whether the heat generated by her involvement also generates a light that points toward hope for victory over the Republican nominee.
In that race, Cornyn faces two challengers. The recent addition of U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt to the GOP mix seems to guarantee a runoff, which will probably boil down to Cornyn vs. Attorney General Ken Paxton on May 26.
While both primaries remain difficult to predict, November is not. Either Cornyn or Paxton would surely defeat either Crockett or Talarico. Wishful thinking and dishonest polls will suggest otherwise, but Texas remains a red state where a fall campaign filled with Trump-bashing, gun-grabbing and the usual Democratic symphony of views on issues from immigration to climate to gender simply will not prevail.
Seven years ago, Beto O’Rourke came within 3 percentage points of Ted Cruz, a memory that still makes Democrat hearts flutter. But his package of sweeping change on the wheels of a skateboard was an outlier. Talarico will not have O’Rourke’s name recognition or national star power, and Crockett will not have his broad appeal.
Beto was also able to stylistically conceal the degree of his liberalism, positioning himself as more of a moderate than he actually was. Democrats no longer play that game in a party that now proudly and vocally embraces its left flank. If Crockett is the nominee, she will surely dance with the tactics that have worked for her so far. She will have attracted a lot of attention and no small amount of money.
At age 44, Crockett has a long potential political future. But when the 120th Congress convenes in January 2027, she will not be in the U.S. Senate.
Mark Davis hosts a morning radio show in Dallas-Fort Worth on 660-AM and at 660amtheanswer.com. Follow him on X: @markdavis.
This story was originally published December 12, 2025 at 4:25 AM.