Republicans are attacking trans athletes to win back women. Here’s why that won’t work

When the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade’s federal abortion protections came down in June, Republican politicians exalted in their biggest legal victory in decades. But while they were busy celebrating the completion of a project 49 years in the making, they neglected to heed the burgeoning disillusionment of a major segment of their electorate: women.

The elimination of federal abortion rights and the clear Republican connection to the Dobbs ruling activated many women and alienated them from the GOP — as the 2022 midterm election results showed. In an urgent attempt to staunch the bleeding of women from their party ranks, Republicans have doubled down on their most trendy “pro-woman” platform: transgender sports bans.

Many of the policies they point to as defending women tend to be overtly anti-LGBTQ, with particular aim at limiting trans athletes’ freedom to participate in teams aligned with their gender identities. Former Kentucky Secretary of State and pro-LGBTQ community activist Trey Grayson described the GOP stance on trans sports bans as: “I’m not picking on this group. I’m defending women.”

Exit polls from last week’s midterm revealed that 60% of voters are dissatisfied with the decision to overturn Roe. And this frustration directly affected voting. Abortion access was rated as the second most important issue overall for voters, with women and voters under 30 leading the charge in this prioritization.

As we turn away from election season and back into legislative sessions, Republicans seem to hope that by loudly and repeatedly declaring their intention to “protect” women from trans athletes, they can reclaim this disappearing voting bloc for 2024.

Conservative politicians, party infrastructure, and advocacy groups all appear to be committed to the movement. The National Republican Senatorial Committee’s agenda states that GOP senators “will protect women’s sports by banning biological males from competing.” The Conservative group Concerned Women for America has argued that transgender sports bans are a top issue for women.

American Principles Project, a conservative political committee, spent millions of dollars this campaign cycle on advertisements claiming that Democrats’ support for trans athletes constitutes a direct threat to women and women’s sports.

The number of anti-trans bills filed in state legislatures doubled from 2021 to 2022, skyrocketing to an all-time high of 280 bills targeting trans individuals this year. Texas legislators approved a law last year limiting trans athletes’ to competing in sports for their birth gender, and 2023 is likely to bring new efforts to limit trans people’s rights in the state.

It is clear. The GOP is all in on trans sports bans.

But women don’t appear to be swayed: 43% of women in a recent poll said that trans folks should be allowed to play on teams matching their identities. Compounding this, about half of adults younger than 30 know a transgender person, compared to 19% of those 65 or older. These young adults are influenced by their relationships with trans individuals and are more likely to support an athlete’s choice.

This issue doesn’t read as one that women, particularly young women, are supporting. The group that Republicans are most worried about losing is unlikely to be moved by the GOP’s stance on trans sports regulations.

Is there truly a need for policies governing transgender athletes? Or is the issue entirely a contrivance on the part of Republicans? Simply put, the evidence doesn’t substantiate claims that there is a real problem.

Lawmakers have been unable to cite concrete examples of trans athletes causing harm. The argument that trans girls and women are competing unfairly or dominating their sport is patently untrue. Trans athletes are achieving statistics equivalent to their competitors in their sports. And from a medical perspective, experts at the American Academy of Pediatrics have stated that there is no evidence of trans athletes having a competitive advantage.

To address the concern that higher testosterone might provide an edge, leagues such as the NCAA require athletes in the male-to-female transition process to take testosterone-suppressing medication for a full year before they are eligible to compete.

Even if you didn’t care about the fact that these bills are targeting a tiny population of already marginalized children or that there is no evidence that transitioning athletes are better competitors than their cisgender counterparts, consider this: These bills actually hurt the women the GOP claims to help. Experts say that such legislation could open up the possibility of female athletes being required to undergo invasive genital exams, hormone and chromosomal testing, and general discrimination for traits like their height and muscle mass.

Republicans have been advertising their legislation limiting trans rights as a major fight for women’s rights and will likely continue to prioritize these policies in the 2023 legislative session. In reality, they are attempting to downplay their extremist views on abortion while actively discriminating against anyone with non-traditional gender identities.

Like the reversal of Roe, this campaign will likely turn off women. Until Republicans wake up to what policy issues actually matter to women, they can continue to count us out of their coalition.

This story was originally published November 21, 2022 at 5:32 AM.