How far right can Texas GOP go? What Tarrant County, state primaries will tell us

After two tumultuous years, the 2022 primary elections may answer some questions about where Texas politics is headed.

Do voters want a change in their county government, now that they know better its power and responsibility? How far right can the Texas GOP go? Can Democrats make headway in a difficult national environment for the party?

Overall, there were few surprises at the Dec. 13 deadline for candidates to file. Not many incumbents appear to face huge challenges. But there’s plenty to be resolved in the short sprint to Feb. 14, when early voting starts – unless it doesn’t.

TARRANT COUNTY

The COVID-19 pandemic offered a civics lesson when it comes to county government. Many Texans learned in 2020 and 2021 that county judges (who are largely executives, not legal officers) and commissioners courts have considerable authority on health and emergencies. One of the biggest parts of the job is overseeing the JPS Health Network and implementation of its bond spending.

With three of the five Tarrant County court seats open, along with the district attorney post, we’re in for the biggest change in county government in decades.

The Republican race to replace longtime Judge Glen Whitley will, like many races in Texas, demonstrate the extent that the populist/activist right has surged. Tim O’Hare, who has led the push to elect staunch conservatives in Southlake and its schools, aims to expand the movement. Betsy Price was known as one of the more conservative mayors of a large city in her record Fort Worth tenure, but in this climate, some label her a moderate.

Three other candidates are in, so a heated Price-O’Hare runoff is a distinct possibility.

Democrats have a more interesting race than many realize, too. Deborah Peoples, who made the runoff to replace Price as mayor, faces Marvin Sutton, a former Arlington City Council member. Peoples has the edge in name recognition and connections.

DA Sharen Wilson’s retirement creates a wide open race in both parties at a time when justice issues and rising crime nationally dominate headlines. A mix of judges, prosecutors and one state representative are in the running, and both parties could have a runoff.

Two county commissioners at opposite ends of the experience spectrum — Republican J.D. Johnson of northwest Tarrant County and Democrat Devan Allen of Arlington – are departing. Voters should consider the need for steady, sensible leadership even more than usual, given the loss of so much experience.

STATE OFFICES

The Republican races for governor and attorney general are more battlegrounds over where the party stands.

Gov. Greg Abbott has aggressively guarded his right flank against challengers such as former Texas GOP chairman Allen West and former state Sen. Don Huffines. On COVID restrictions, he initially tried to lead, then quickly followed where base Republican voters went on masks, shutdowns and vaccine requirements. He’s probably safe in the primary; the question is whether he created any trouble for himself in the general election.

The AG race turns more on the incumbent, Ken Paxton. The two-term Republican has been under a cloud of federal investigation for months, after former employees accused him of corruption. Paxton says these hand-picked former loyalists are out to get him. But he has three well-known GOP challengers — Land Commissioner George P. Bush, Congressman Louie Gohmert and former state Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman. All are running in part on the argument that Paxton is vulnerable to a Democrat in the fall.

Paxton inspires fierce loyalty for his willingness to fight Republican political battles as AG, especially his pitiable lawsuit to support Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the election. He’ll be tough to beat, but a multi-candidate field could force a runoff.

Democrats are fielding their usual slate of underwhelming statewide candidates, with the exception of Beto O’Rourke. He’ll cruise in the primary for governor, though politicos will watch his performance in the Rio Grande Valley for two reasons: He did poorly there in his 2018 Senate primary, and all eyes are on how many Hispanic voters are migrating to the GOP.

The Fort Worth area will see few heated primaries for seats in Congress and the Legislature.

One interesting rematch, in the 12th Congressional District, is off the table. Chris Putnam, who gave longtime incumbent Republican Kay Granger her most competitive race in years in 2020, decided against another primary run at the last minute, citing family concerns. Granger, like most other Texas representatives, will cruise to re-election.

WAIT A MINUTE (OR A FEW MONTHS)

Now, about that Feb. 14 early voting date. Several lawsuits are pending over newly drawn congressional and legislative districts. Most turn on the Legislature’s seeming indifference to the huge growth of minority populations and whether lawmakers were legally obligated to create more districts controlled by Black or Hispanic voters.

If a court steps in to draw maps or otherwise orders a re-do, the March 1 primaries will be delayed, and candidate filing redone. The consequences are unpredictable but could be vast.

In 2012, the three-term lieutenant governor, David Dewhurst, seemed a shoo-in to replace retiring U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. But the primary was delayed to the end of May, with a July runoff in which Dewhurst was upset by a little-known former state solicitor general.

You know him as Sen. Ted Cruz.

This story was originally published December 17, 2021 at 2:12 PM.