5 factors that will decide Texas race between O’Rourke, Abbott — and one that won’t
Beto O’Rourke is jumping into the race for Texas governor just as many Democrats around the country are grimacing at their prospects. He must see something in Texas that they don’t see elsewhere.
The headwinds are strong, the opposite of when he nearly beat Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018. And O’Rourke isn’t the magician who charmed the state in 2018. Voters know him now from that race and his disastrous 2020 presidential campaign.
Here are the top factors that will shape the race — and one that won’t:
Grocery stores and gas pumps
Americans are jittery about jobs and the future, but inflation is a here-and-now problem voters haven’t faced in 40 years. So, we don’t know how they’ll react. The natural inclination when gas, milk and bread are more expensive is to blame the party in power in Washington.
But Texas has been run by Republicans for decades. If voters here want change, it’s a different calculation. The problem for O’Rourke is that it’ll be hard to make the case that Abbott and energy-friendly Republicans are the reason people are paying 4 bucks a gallon.
Not the same Beto
When O’Rourke ran against Cruz, he was a little-known congressman from El Paso. He had the luxury of defining himself as a different kind of politician.
There will be none of that this time. In a recent Texas Tribune/University of Texas poll, just 7 percent of respondents said they didn’t know enough about O’Rourke to say whether they liked him. And worse for him, half of respondents had an unfavorable opinion, compared to 35 percent who find him favorable.
Many of those who disapprove are hard-core Republicans, not the voters O’Rourke would need or target anyway. Abbott’s numbers are nothing to write home about, either: Just 43 percent positively rate his performance as governor, while 48 percent disapprove.
But O’Rourke is at a terrible starting point. In 2018, he painted on a blank canvas. This year, voters have a set picture of him.
The national mood
With Biden struggling on several fronts and surprising Republican victories in Virginia and New Jersey, the GOP is surging. Democrats were always going to be on the defensive in a midterm election, and now, they’ve got a fractured party fighting over how far left to go.
Abbott will tie O’Rourke to Biden and progressives like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or Sen. Bernie Sanders at every turn. Every liberal position O’Rourke took in his presidential campaign — especially his infamous comments on guns — will be on a greatest hits rotation. Our elections are nationalized more than ever, and in this climate, that’s bad for O’Rourke.
Campaign tactics
Texas Democrats theorized for years that if they could just get more people to vote, they could win statewide. The 2020 results proved that theory wrong, or at least insufficient. O’Rourke will have to persuade voters who’ve backed Republicans to change their minds.
His campaign announcement was pitched to disaffected moderate-to-conservative voters. His narrative is that a small band of extremist politicians are pushing issues that distract or divide (abortion, guns) while ignoring what Texans need and want (a functioning power grid, good jobs and schools).
“Those in positions of public trust have stopped listening to, serving and paying attention to and trusting the people of Texas … they’re not focused on the things we really want them to do,” he said.
The February power grid failure will play a huge role in that narrative. But if the lights stay on this winter and, crucially, next summer, O’Rourke is asking voters to act on frustration that will be 2 years old. Tough sell.
The wild cards
What happens if, in June, the U.S. Supreme Court strikes down Roe vs. Wade or otherwise gives states more latitude to restrict abortion? Will women flock to the polls in anger and vote Democratic? Will anti-abortion advocates lose energy, or will they see ultimate victory at hand and turn out in big numbers for Republicans to secure it?
What happens if the record flood of illegal immigration seen this year continues in 2022? What if COVID-19 surges again and we’re still fighting about masks or vaccines?
If the race is close, the slightest ripple in the electorate could be decisive.
Money? Forget it.
Usually, fundraising is an important metric. And Abbott and O’Rourke will do a lot of it.
There will be the usual charges that Abbott is a tool of “special interests” or O’Rourke is raising money from lefties in Hollywood and New York. But each will have plenty of cash to bludgeon the other, and money raised or spent won’t tell us a lot about who will win.
With two prominent losses on his record, this is O’Rourke’s last shot. It’s odd he chose to take it in such a challenging environment. His political acumen was strong in 2018 but terrible in 2020.
Which is it this time?
