Colin Allred vs. Ken Paxton for Senate? Texas Dems need ‘perfect storm’ to have a shot | Opinion
Americans still don’t like Democrats.
Except we still love local Democrats, and that gives the party a thin chance to come back.
Democrats have won five straight down-ballot special elections nationwide in recent weeks, meaning MAGA may have hit a peak.
Texas Democrats: Don’t get your hopes up.
In a time when national Democrats are derided by their own voters as punchless and leaderless, Texas Democrats don’t seem ready for elections a year away.
So when former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred said this week that he’s thinking of running for U.S. Senate again — against either Sen. John Cornyn or maybe Attorney General Ken Paxton — that gave the party its first lift.
Allred is “seriously considering” the race and will decide this summer, he told The Dallas Morning News before a Dallas speech to Principles First, a center-right group opposing President Donald Trump.
“This is a time for everybody to realize just what’s at stake,” he said, “and how important it is that we all stay involved.”
Allred raised close to $90 million last year when he was a little-known congressman from Dallas running against Sen. Ted Cruz.
But most Democratic voters in Texas live in or south of Austin and Houston.
Allred slumped down the stretch and wound up losing by 8 percentage points.
True, the 2026 election is expected to be closer. In 2018, Trump’s first midterm, then-U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke of El Paso lost by 3 percentage points to Cruz. Patrick and Paxton won by about 4 percentage points.
But those elections were close because O’Rourke and Allred raised enormous amounts of money.
If neither runs, it’s not clear if any other Democrat can finance a campaign, except maybe brash U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett.
Allred or another Democrat’s chances to win would take a “perfect storm,” Rice University political scientist Mark Jones wrote by email:
“1. Trump’s approval ratings crater and he is a serious millstone around the necks of all Texas Republicans;
“2. Paxton challenges and defeats Cornyn,” or Cornyn decides not to run,
“3. Democrats are able to convince a high-quality candidate to file in December,” when nobody knows how strong Trump will be or where Paxton will run;
“4. National Democrats decide to invest heavily,” which is likely if Republicans get stuck with Paxton running for Senate.
Even if Paxton faced a well-funded Allred or another Democrat for either Senate or attorney general, he’d be favored.
Paxton, a McKinney lawyer, has never faced a Democrat with much campaign money, Jones wrote. His next opponent will run commercials showing Texans Paxton’s vast collection of moral, political and legal baggage.
But he’d still be the Republican candidate in a state that is about 50%-42% Republican.
Another political scientist was more direct.
“I doubt there will be enough frustration over the Trump administration. ... People will quickly forget,” Eric McDaniel of the University of Texas at Austin wrote by email.
“Also, the Texas Democratic Party is too much of a mess to properly mobilize voters.”
Texas Democrats’ biggest problem is not in Washington.
