25 reasons why Cruz, Texas Republicans are winning so far and Colin Allred is not | Opinion
1. We don’t know the exact vote so far, but we know early voters’ party history. So far, Texas is not turning blue.
2. Tarrant County is not turning blue.
3. People who don’t usually vote are not suddenly voting, according to political consultants’ analysis of early turnout.
4. Anyway, if your campaign depends on voters who don’t vote, you’re in trouble.
5. Young Texans are mostly not voting at all. Some are leaving the state.
6. Abortion law can be a winning election issue for either party. But it’s not either party’s only issue.
7. The Capitol riot Jan. 6, 2021, seemed like a winning issue. But to voters, that was a long time ago.
8. Only 7% of voters consider abortion law the No. 1 issue in two recent polls. Even Democrats ranked it fourth behind upholding democracy, the economy and healthcare.
9. So far, Rep. Colin Allred is not winning the U.S. Senate race.
10. This was always going to be a tough year for Texas Democrats. Republicans could ride Donald Trump’s coattails.
11. But Democrats still had to mount a serious challenge to Sen. Ted Cruz because they’re in danger of losing control of the Senate.
12. Allred started as an unknown, even to Democrats. He’s from Dallas. In Texas, Democrats mostly live south of a line from Austin to Houston.
13. About 1 in 6 Texas independent voters say they still don’t know much about Allred.
14. But even if Allred loses, his campaign with Vice President Kamala Harris might help Democrats might flip a couple of Texas House seats blue.
15. Cruz is not terribly popular. He’s just more popular than Democrats.
16. If the 2012 Republican Party primary runoff had not been delayed, Cruz would never have gone to the Senate. A court case pushed the nomination into a lazy, low-turnout midsummer runoff. Cruz came from 10 points behind and won with support from only 5% of Texas voters.
17. Cruz has the benefit of a simpler campaign message: “legal immigration good,” “illegal immigration bad.” Allred’s position is more complicated and nuanced.
18. But Allred himself makes his answers complicated. What kind of border “barrier” does he want? How do we love all Texas children and treat them equally regardless of gender but still support good sportsmanship and fairness to girls and women in physical contests?
19. That’s a Democratic problem: Voters don’t hear a clear message. In Texas, they don’t hear Democrats at all. The party is rarely in the conversation in Tarrant County or most of Texas outside the big cities.
20. No Democrat has been elected countywide or statewide in 30 years.
21. Democrats have not run Tarrant County in 38 years.
22. If Republican Sheriff Bill Waybourn’s race against Democrat Patrick Moses were close, we would be hearing more about it on TV and in our mailboxes.
23. Mainly, the elections show that there is no limit to Texans’ admiration for ornery big-talking TV celebrities.
24. In two weeks, radio and TV will be full of Christmas music.
25. This is a campaign slogan, but it’s also reality:
Texas is still Texas.
This story was originally published October 24, 2024 at 9:37 AM.
