Ted Cruz is winning. But Colin Allred pressed him harder than Beto did. So what’s next? | Opinion
.JPG "U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, speaks during a debate for the U.S. Senate with U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, D-Dallas, hosted by WFAA on Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2024, in Dallas, Texas.")
Somehow, the promised “new” Ted Cruz never got off his tour bus in Dallas.
Instead, the old Ted Cruz burst out like a rolling ball of butcher knives, elbowing the new kinder, gentler “Cruz 3.0” aside in favor of the fiendish version who carved up opponents to win elections in 2012 and 2018.
The Ted Cruz on the U.S. Senate debate stage Oct. 15 against Democrat Colin Allred was the same Houston Republican who bulled his way to power in the U.S. Senate in 2012. He was the same tough debater who even beat Donald Trump in 11 states during a 2016 presidential primary campaign that turned into a bare-knuckle brawl.
By midweek, Cruz’s bus tour was rolling to red Amarillo, Lubbock, Midland and Abilene to cement his victory, the same path he took to a 3-point 2018 victory over Democrat Beto O’Rourke.
There’s one big reason Allred, a Dallas congressman, has less chance to win than O’Rourke did:
Trump.
There was no presidential race at the top of the ticket at all in 2018, and no Mar-A-Lago tuxedo coattails for Cruz to ride.
In the last five U.S. Senate elections in presidential election years when a national Republican candidate led the ticket, the Republican Senate candidates in Texas won by 10, 15, 12, 33 and 11 points.
“Even if Allred had a great performance,” University of Texas government professor Eric McDaniel wrote by email, “he still suffers from it being a presidential election year.”
Voters will turn out to vote for Trump or for Democrat Kamala Harris.
Not so much for Cruz or Allred.
Harris is helping turn out more Democratic voters for Allred, but he also needs softer turnout for Trump.
If Trump does something “so awful” that it discourages his voters, Allred might have a chance, McDaniel said: “However, I do not see anything that Trump can do that will demobilize his voters.”
Cruz won’t come close to past Republican winning margins.
There’s a big reason for that: For all O’Rourke’s celebrity appeal, Allred is a much stronger Democratic candidate.
He’s also a much tougher debater.
“As the outsider with lower name recognition, being on the stage with Cruz was a bit of a victory in and of itself,” wrote 42-year TCU political science professor Jim Riddlesperger.
“Allred held his own — [he] wasn’t outclassed.”
In 2018, former Princeton college debate team champion Cruz went up against former Columbia rowing team champion O’Rourke. O’Rourke was outtalked and outmatched.
This time, Cruz went up against a former Baylor football team captain. Allred stood his ground and often leaned into the argument.
There’s a future ahead for Allred if he’s not in the U.S. Senate.
But experts disagree on where.
First of all, he definitely shouldn’t follow O’Rourke’s path. O’Rourke decided that losing in Texas meant he was ready to run for president.
That decision “took his promising career in the wrong direction immediately,” Riddlesperger wrote.
“Losing elections doesn’t mean ending a career,” he wrote, “but it does mean that the next decision should be made carefully and wisely.”
If Harris becomes president, Rice professor Mark P. Jones wrote, Allred might land somewhere in the administration.
If Trump wins, Jones wrote, Allred might be well-positioned to run against a troubled Republican like Attorney General Ken Paxton, either for that office or if Paxton runs for U.S. Senate.
“I don’t think anything in last night’s debate moved the needle, one way or another,” Jones wrote Wednesday.
Only about 10% of voters are not firmly decided, he wrote. The debate won’t drive anyone to switch sides.
“The status quo of the race prior to the debate was a modest Cruz lead, and that’s where it remains after the debate,” Jones wrote.
Cruz still has his work cut out for him, Jones wrote.
“But as long as he continues to run a solid campaign and spend money, and Donald Trump’s campaign doesn’t implode (which doesn’t appear to be the case), then Cruz should win,” Jones added.
Forget the New Cruz.
This was Cruz Classic.
This story was originally published October 16, 2024 at 12:39 PM.
