El Nino may mean a ‘wetter, snowier’ winter for North Texas. But what about the drought?
While near-normal seasonal mean temperatures are most likely for North Texas this winter, South Texas has equal chances for below-, near- or above-average seasonal mean temperatures, according to NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook by the Climate Prediction Center — a division of the National Weather Service.
As for winter precipitation under El Niño conditions, the outlook shows wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in Texas this season. Meanwhile, due to the expected wetter-than-average forecast, drought conditions are expected to improve across the state.
The Farmers’ Almanac predicted months ago that Texans will experience a possible major winter storm in mid-January.
What to know about El Nino weather conditions
In the monthly outlook released in June, forecasters issued an El Nino Advisory, noting that El Nino conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the winter. El Nino is expected to be moderate-to-strong by late fall and early winter. By the winter, there is an 84% chance of a greater than moderate strength El Nino, and a 56% chance of a strong El Nino developing.
The predicted shift to El Nino conditions means that Texas could experience more moisture and rainfall. In the winter, for Texas, stronger El Nino conditions would mean above-average precipitation.
During El Niño, there’s generally more storminess across the southern region of the country. El Nino conditions typically lead to wetter, snowier conditions in Texas.
