Will Texas see more snow this winter? Here’s what El Nino weather data tells us
The expected El Nino has emerged, according to scientists at the Climate Prediction Center.
In the monthly outlook released in June, forecasters issued an El Nino Advisory, noting that El Nino conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the winter.
The predicted shift to El Nino conditions means that Texas could experience more moisture and rainfall. In the winter, for Texas, stronger El Nino conditions would mean above-average precipitation and cooler conditions.
What is El Nino?
El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator, which occurs every 2 to 7 years on average. El Nino’s impact on the U.S. is weaker during the summer and stronger beginning in late fall through spring.
“Depending on its strength, El Nino can cause a range of impacts, such as increasing the risk of heavy rainfall and droughts in certain locations around the world,” said Michelle L’Heureux, climate scientist at the Climate Prediction Center, in a news release. “Climate change can exacerbate or mitigate certain impacts related to El Nino. For example, El Nino could lead to new records for temperatures, particularly in areas that already experience above-average temperatures during El Nino.”
El Nino is expected to be moderate-to-strong by late fall and early winter. By the winter, there is an 84% chance of a greater than moderate strength El Nino, and a 56% chance of a strong El Nino developing.
Moderate-to-strong El Nino conditions during the fall and winter typically result in wetter-than-average conditions from southern California to along the Gulf Coast and drier-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley. El Nino winters also create better chances for warmer-than-average temperatures across the northern tier of the U.S.
El Nino conditions help to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, while favoring strong hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific Basins.
What does that mean for Texas?
During El Niño, there’s generally more storminess across the southern region of the country. El Nino conditions typically lead to wetter, snowier conditions in Texas and cooler maximum temperatures during the winter, according to the National Weather Service.
When El Nino exists, maximum temperatures are cooler and there are much fewer warm winter days in Texas. During El Nino, precipitation increases significantly, as does snowfall in the state.
From October to December, most of Texas is on average “somewhat wet” during El Nino events, while only East Texas is “wet.” Temperatures are near normal during those months when El Nino conditions are present.
As for El Nino events from November to January, most of Texas historically ranks as wet, while West Texas is somewhat wet and the southern tip of the state is very wet. Temperatures are near normal, except for colder conditions in West and South Texas.
