The Tarrant Five: Democrats will try to flip these Texas House seats in 2020
Tarrant Democrats have their eye on the target.
Emboldened by election successes in 2018, they now are targeting five Texas House seats here, hoping to wrest them out of Republican control in 2020.
“In a presidential year, there’s no reason we can’t activate voters to flip these seats,” said Allison Campolo, who founded Tarrant Together, a group trying to turn Tarrant County blue. “These are definitely not going to be easy by any stretch.
“But they are winnable if everything comes together.”
In the bulls-eye: Texas House Districts 92, 93, 94, 96 and 97.
Those seats are now represented by Republicans Jonathan Stickland of Bedford, who is not seeking re-election, Matt Krause of Fort Worth, Tony Tinderholt of Arlington, Bill Zedler of Arlington and Craig Goldman of Fort Worth.
“We are well aware of what they are trying to do,” said Darl Easton, who heads the Tarrant County Republican Party. “Both sides are going to be there.
“We aren’t going to run and hide under the bridge. We are going to meet them head on to hold on to Tarrant County.”
Next year is expected to bring a watershed election, as voters get the chance to weigh in on Republican President Donald Trump.
“Presidential years always generate big turnout,” said Bill Miller, an Austin-based political consultant. “Next year, there’s a guy at the top of the ballot who generates strong love and strong hate. That generates strong turnout.
“Everyone is at risk — or not, depending on how you run your campaign and who turns out. No one can predict what will happen.”
Tarrant outreach
Tarrant County, which has remained red through the years as nearly every other major urban county has gone blue, is believed to be key in elections. It is seen as a bellwether that serves as a guide to any political shift that might happen in Texas.
“Tarrant County is behind other urban counties in Texas in gravitating to the Democratic Party, but the 2018 election showed that it is clearly a toss-up area,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston.
Democrats now believe they can make inroads in Tarrant, since Democrat Beto O’Rourke — who lost his overall bid to unseat Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz last year — beat Cruz in the county by 3,869 votes.
If the same voters who cast ballots last year turn out again, and Democrats find more like-minded people to head to the polls in 2020, they believe they will see more victories.
“Right now, we are trying to figure out who is a Democrat,” said Jana Sanchez, a former congressional candidate and finance chair of Tarrant Together. “We are looking ... voter by voter.”
Republicans are doing their own groundwork, recruiting precinct chairs to fill empty slots, seeking new party members and shoring up support in general, Easton said.
“All the candidates are well aware of the threat of an increased turnout from Democrats in 2020,” he said. “We have a get out the vote effort that will be pretty major.”
Political observers note that, despite Democratic gains last year, Republicans continue to hold all countywide offices in Tarrant County.
“But, of course, no political area is ever safe forever to one party,” said Jim Riddlesperger, a political science professor at TCU. “And yes, as Democrats begin to think they have a chance, more Democrats will turn out to vote.”
At the same time, Republicans who want to keep Tarrant County in the red column may turn out in larger numbers as well.
Tarrant Five
Tarrant Together reviewed past elections and saw that data trends showing five House seats might swing to Democrats — with the right candidates and outreach — next year.
Stickland, for instance, won with less than 50% of the vote. And Zedler claimed victory with 50.8%.
In other districts, where it has been common through the years for Republicans to win by large margins, last year Tinderholt won with 52%, Goldman won with 53% and Krause won with 53.8%.
“This is not a blip,” Sanchez said. “It is a trend.”
In 2020, Democrats plan to put forth experienced candidates who have the ability to raise campaign contributions, such as Steve Riddell, the Democrat who narrowly lost to Stickland last year in District 92, Jeff Whitfield who also is running for that district, Joe Drago who is running for District 96, Elizabeth Beck who is running for District 97 and Lydia Bean, daughter of past legislative candidate Nancy Bean, who is running for District 93.
Krause sent out campaign emails noting that District 93 is “ground zero for Democrats.”
“They don’t just want to pick up this seat, they want to take out a strong conservative voice to send a message that Texas values should be silenced,” he wrote in one email. “I need your help to send a strong message to Democrats.”
Goldman said Republicans are gearing up to defend these and other Republican-held seats.
“We will be working harder than ever before to differentiate our core beliefs of giving Texans the liberty, personal responsibility and freedoms to make decisions in how we live our lives versus the Democrats’ message, which is to have government make decisions on how we live our lives,” he said.
Tinderholt stressed that Tarrant County remains a conservative area.
“Our community doesn’t support the socialistic policies that Democrats are peddling,” he said. “We won’t be taking any vote for granted and will be running a well-funded campaign that contacts every voter.”
And Zedler points out that a large amount of money was sent from out of state to help Democrats in Texas.
“Republicans and voters were caught off guard by this historic attempt,” he said. “Thankfully, the attempt still came up short and we returned all of the Republican House members in Tarrant County to Austin.”
Election outreach
Democrats and Republicans alike will be spreading out throughout Tarrant County, knocking on doors, making phone calls, sending emails, seeking supporters.
Democrats particularly are looking at people new to Tarrant County, as well as those who voted in the past but not in recent years. They are scouring neighborhoods in 211 precincts where O’Rourke performed well last year, focusing on drumming up support for Democrats.
Their research shows that tens of thousands of Democrats have moved into Tarrant County, or from one part of the county to another, and may not be registered to vote here. They want to register those people to vote — and update them on pressing issues so they feel informed enough to cast ballots.
“We’ve got to know who the Democrats are,” Sanchez said. “With so much movement from Republican to Democrat in suburban areas, we need to know ... who is likely to vote Democratic. If we don’t start identifying them now, we won’t know.”
And any successes in Tarrant County will help all Democrats seeking statewide office.
If Democrats are able to flip nine House seats throughout the state — and hold on to the House seats Democrats hold — their party will take control of the lower chamber. If that happens in 2020, the political shift comes in time for Democrats to have a significant voice in the 2021 redistricting process.
“I fully expect at least three (Tarrant) seats will absolutely flip,” Sanchez said. “Two are more of a struggle. But if we get three out of five, we will look back and realize we did well.”
Tarrant Five
How the five Republicans being targeted by Democrats have fared in the past four elections.
| District | Representative | Winning % 2012 | Winning % 2014 | Winning % 2016 | Winning % 2018 |
| 92 | Stickland | 80.6 | 63.6 | 55.6 | 49.8 |
| 93 | Krause | 58.95 | 100 | 60.6 | 53.8 |
| 94 | Patrick/Tinderholt | 83 | 56.6 | 73.6 | 52 |
| 96 | Zedler | 80.5 | 80.7 | 56.9 | 50.8 |
| 97 | Goldman | 59 | 81.6 | 57 | 53 |
This story was originally published August 1, 2019 at 6:00 AM.
