What Cornyn loyalists need to know after Trump's Paxton endorsement

President Donald Trump on Tuesday endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton over four-term U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in the May 26 Republican runoff, upending a race that establishment Republicans had hoped would break the other way.

For Tarrant County Republicans worried about the November ballot — and what a Paxton nomination could mean for Rep. Beth Van Duyne, state Rep. John McQueeney and other downballot candidates — here is what to know with early voting underway through Friday.

What Trump said, and why now

Trump announced his pick on Truth Social on the second day of early voting. He praised Paxton as “extremely loyal” and faulted Cornyn for being “very late in backing me” during the 2024 primary.

Cornyn responded that he has worked closely with the president and voted with him more than 99% of the time. “It is now time for Texas Republican voters to decide if they want a strong nominee to help our GOP candidates down ballot and defeat Talarico in November, or a weak nominee who jeopardizes everything we care about,” Cornyn said.

The winner faces Democratic state Rep. James Talarico of Austin on Nov. 3.

The electability argument — and the poll behind it

A Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy and Research Center poll shows Cornyn leading Talarico 45%-44%, while Paxton is tied with the Democrat at 44%-44%. Notably, 2% of Cornyn’s primary supporters told pollsters they would cross over to Talarico if Paxton were the nominee.

That is the empirical core of Cornyn’s pitch to country-club Republicans and business-aligned voters: a Paxton nomination puts a Senate seat into genuine play, in a state where Cornyn won by 10 points over MJ Hegar in 2020 and by 27 points in 2014.

University of Houston political scientist Brandon Rottinghaus has said Trump’s endorsement “solidifies Paxton’s MAGA label.” Cornyn will need to rally what he called a “very small segment” of non-Trump Republican primary voters. SMU’s Cal Jillson said the endorsement likely “stretches out Paxton’s lead” in the runoff but “makes the general election closer, more interesting” — potentially the most expensive Senate race in the country.

The downballot stakes for Tarrant County

Standing alongside Collin County state Reps. Jeff Leach of McKinney and Matt Shaheen of Prosper at a Sunday event in what he called “ground zero” for the runoff, Cornyn warned that Republicans could lose seats “in Washington, Austin and county courthouses” with Paxton atop the ticket.

A pro-Cornyn political committee has circulated analysis projecting that U.S. Rep. Beth Van Duyne of Irving and state Rep. John McQueeney of Fort Worth are at risk if Paxton is the nominee, and that Shaheen’s race would tighten significantly.

“If the attorney general happens to be the nominee, there’s a good chance we could lose,” Cornyn told supporters. “But even if we were lucky enough to win … we would not win by a big enough margin to help people downballot.”

Leach was blunter, saying Paxton “has no business serving you or serving me in the United States Senate.”

Paxton’s baggage

Cornyn’s runoff strategy has leaned heavily on Paxton’s ethical and legal history — the 2023 House impeachment and ongoing scrutiny of his conduct as attorney general and allegations of infidelity in his personal life.

“I know the attorney general thinks all the scandals that he’s brought with him over the years are already ‘baked into the cake’ and that people don’t care,” Cornyn said Sunday. “But I guarantee you, I care, and I believe you care.”

Paxton, in an April appearance before the Grapevine Republican Club, told the crowd Cornyn “is not a Trump guy” and “pretty much lives in D.C.” Cornyn senior adviser Matt Mackowiak countered that the senator has voted with Trump 99.3% of the time.

Who’s still with Cornyn

Several notable Republicans have endorsed Cornyn. Others remain on the sidelines.

• Former House Speaker Dade Phelan, who presided over Paxton’s 2023 impeachment trial, has endorsed Cornyn.
• The National Republican Senatorial Committee has backed Cornyn from the start. “We have been very clear that the fight to protect President Trump’s Senate majority should not be fought in Texas and John Cornyn is the only candidate who ensures that does not happen,” NRSC Communications Director Joanna Rodriguez said in an earlier statement.
• Gov. Greg Abbott said May 14 he would not endorse: “Haven’t made one yet. Not going to make one. I work with both of them very closely.”
• Sen. Ted Cruz told Fox News he is staying out, saying he has endorsed and campaigned with both men in the past.
• Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick has not endorsed, and a spokesperson would not say whether he plans to.

The runoff math

Cornyn led the March 3 primary 42%-40.5%, with Hunt taking 13.5%. Paxton carried Collin County, his home base, 41%-40%. Runoffs typically draw the most engaged base voters — a dynamic that historically favors a candidate like Paxton with intense grassroots support.

Early voting runs through Friday. Tarrant County voters can use any of 37 early-voting sites; locations are listed at tarrantcountytx.gov/en/elections.html. Election Day is May 26. Anyone who did not vote in the March 3 Democratic primary may participate.

Opinion: The view from Star-Telegram columnists

Star-Telegram opinion columnist Ryan Rusak argued Tuesday that Trump’s endorsement “effectively ended one of the hottest Texas political showdowns in years” and marks “the end of Cornyn’s career as a titan in Texas Republican politics.” Rusak wrote that Paxton “attached himself to Trump in every way possible,” while “Cornyn occasionally maintained an independent thought, and we just can’t have that in the Republican Party these days.”

Rusak noted that runoffs structurally favor Paxton because turnout drops and the remaining electorate skews toward “the true believers who eat, breathe and sleep politics.” His read: the endorsement may not add a large net vote total, but it could “cast his campaign as hopeless and give many of his voters reason to find something else to do.”

His parting question to Republican primary voters who care about Paxton’s record: “Republican voters clearly don’t care about those flaws when it comes to Donald Trump. Why on earth would they hold Ken Paxton to a higher standard?”

For Cornyn-aligned Republicans, the closing argument is unchanged — electability, seniority and downballot protection — but the closing window is short. Friday ends early voting. Tuesday ends the race.