When are election results from swing states expected? Here’s what to know

Now that Election Day is finally here, one question is on the minds of many voters: When will we know who won the White House?

Whether former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris wins the presidential election is expected to be determined by just seven swing states — all of which process and count ballots at different times and speeds.

While complete official results — which must be canvassed and certified — often take days or longer to be reached, unofficial results are typically made available much sooner, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center.

News outlets, like the Associated Press, use these unofficial results to call races in states across the country.

Here is what we know about the expected timeline for unofficial results in the seven swing states.

Arizona

Polls close in Arizona at 7 p.m. local time, and the first unofficial results are expected to be made available at around 8 p.m., according to the Arizona Republic.

This batch of results will include the tallies from early ballots cast throughout the state. Afterwards, election officials will work on tabulating the results from votes cast on Election Day and release them throughout the night.

However, it will likely take multiple days to count all the ballots, per the outlet, which notes that Arizona law allows officials roughly two weeks to finish counting.

“Typically in Arizona we know the results within four or five days, so that’s what I’m expecting we’ll see again,” Samara Klar, a professor of political science at the University of Arizona, previously told McClatchy News.

In 2020, the Associated Press called Arizona for then-candidate Joe Biden on the day after Election Day.

Georgia

The polls close in Georgia at 7 p.m. local time — and many of the votes cast there will be counted shortly afterwards.

Under new state law, all ballots received prior to Election Day must be counted by 8 p.m. on Nov. 5, according to the Savannah Morning News.

In a recent news conference, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said he expected around 70% of the state’s votes would be available by this time, adding that the votes cast on Election Day could take slightly longer.

“Many of the smaller counties, I think they’ll be done early, probably 10 to 10:30 p.m., something like that,” Raffensperger, according to the outlet. “Larger counties, by the end of the night, we should have the complete tabulation and report of every vote that was cast on Election Day.”

In 2020, a statewide audit of ballots was conducted, so the AP declared Biden won Georgia more than two weeks after Election Day.

Michigan

Polls close in the Great Lakes State at 8 p.m. local time — at which point election officials can start releasing the unofficial results, according to the Detroit Free Press.

However, the final outcome may not be known on Election Night.

Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson said at a press conference on Nov. 4 that she expects Michigan’s unofficial results could be made available “by midday Wednesday,” according to the Lansing State Journal.

“We’ll see how things unfold, but I’m very optimistic and hopeful that we’ll have those unofficial results in sooner than we did in 2020,” Benson added.

In 2020, the Associated Press declared Biden the winner of the state the day after Election Day.

Nevada

Polls close at 7 p.m. local time in the Silver State, but the final results may not be made available for days, according to the Nevada Independent.

This is in part because the state allows mail-in ballots postmarked by Nov. 5 to be counted if they are received up until Nov. 9.

“As a result, in the event of a razor-thin margin like in 2020 (Biden won by about 33,000 votes out of 1.4 million ballots cast), election forecasters may not be comfortable calling the race until days after Election Day because of the possibility of outstanding mail ballots,” according to the Independent.

In 2020, the AP called Nevada for Biden four days after Election Day.

North Carolina

Polls close at 7:30 p.m. local time in the Tar Heel State, and the State Board of Elections will deliver results as they are processed, according to the Wilmington Star News.

The elections board anticipates that about 98% of the unofficial results will be made available by the end of the evening on Nov. 5.

In 2020, the AP declared Trump the winner of North Carolina three days after Election Day.

Pennsylvania

Polls close in the Keystone State at 8 p.m. local time, and some unofficial results will begin trickling in soon after that, according to CBS News.

“We’ll get our first vote reports from many counties quite quickly after polls close. These will often be all of the mail ballots that people were able to get through by then,” Marc Meredith, a political science professor at the University of Pennsylvania, told the outlet. “Nearly all Election Day votes should mostly be reported by early Wednesday morning.”

However, a total ballot count may not be reached for about one week, Meredith told the outlet.

Jennifer Jensen, a professor of political science at Lehigh University, previously told McClatchy News, “I can’t imagine that they will be calling this on Tuesday evening.”

In 2020, the AP called Pennsylvania for Biden four days after Election Day.

Wisconsin

Polls close at 8 p.m. local time in the Badger State.

Barry Burden, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told CBS News, “typically 2 to 2 ½ hours after polls close, we start to get a pretty good picture of the state.”

Unofficial results could be released very late on Election Night or on Nov. 6, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

In 2020, the AP declared Biden the winner of Wisconsin the day after Election Day.

The bottom line

The timeline for when swing states deliver their unofficial results will depend, in large part, on how the vote margins break down, Costas Panagopoulos, a professor of political science at Northeastern University, told McClatchy News.

“If the polls are accurate and the outcomes are really as close as expected by some in key states, it could take a few days,” Panagopoulos said.

“But poll estimates have uncertainty associated with them, while actual outcomes do not,” he added. “If the actual results are less equivocal than polls in some or all of these states, we may be able to project a winner more quickly, perhaps even on Election Night.”

This story was originally published November 5, 2024 at 5:35 PM with the headline "When are election results from swing states expected? Here’s what to know."