Could 2024 see a ‘red’ or ‘blue’ mirage? Why experts caution reading into early results
As polls close across the U.S. and votes are counted the evening of Nov. 5, initial results may not be the best indicator of whether former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris will be the next president.
A predicted repeat of the “red mirage” and “blue shift” could be to blame, experts say.
The phenomenon explains why Republicans could appear in the lead as polls close, but mail-in ballots counted late into the night and the following days could close or completely erase such leads.
In 2020, Trump took the lead on election night, prompting him to prematurely declare victory. Overnight, however, the continuous count of mail-in ballots, which were favored by Democrats, pushed President Joe Biden into the lead.
“A lot of voters who didn’t trust the 2020 election results pointed (to) the ‘red mirage’ as the key reason,” John Kuk, political science professor at Michigan State University, told McClatchy News. He said it’s likely the mirage occurs again this year.
This year, experts say Trump could appear in the lead the evening of Nov. 5, but mail-in ballots or votes in larger counties, which may favor Harris and take longer to count, could shift the election’s outcome.
2020’s ‘red’ mirage
Several factors contributed to Trump’s early lead over Biden in 2020, according to a report by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and many could be seen again as results are announced this year.
“At the forty-eight-hour mark after polls closed, fifteen states were still outside of half a percentage point of where their final two-party vote share would be,” the report said, referencing the 2020 race. “Three of these states—Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Nevada—were battleground states.”
The analysis found that it took longer to count votes in “blue” areas across the country. Votes were counted faster in smaller counties, which often favored Republican candidates, while larger cities and counties, that traditionally favored Democrats, had significantly more ballots to tally.
Additionally, some battleground states do not allow mail-in ballots to be counted until Election Day or after polls close, according to the National Conference of State Legislature. Some mail-in ballots also arrived after Election Day, further delaying the count.
By Nov. 7, four days after polls closed, Biden was declared the winner.
What to expect after polls close in 2024
Experts predict another “red mirage” and “blue shift” as votes are counted the evening of Nov. 5, similar to the one experienced in 2020.
“(Mail-in ballots) will take time to count and they will be disproportionately Democratic votes. So, we will probably see this phenomenon again,” Dan Mallinson, public policy professor at Penn State, told McClatchy News.
Mallinson said he doesn’t expect to see the opposite “blue mirage” and “red shift” in the battleground state of Pennsylvania.
Though Trump has demanded a winner be declared on election night, according to the Associated Press, officials in swing states say final results will take time to determine.
Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson told the Detroit Free Press that they hope to have official results within 24 hours from when polls close.
In Pennsylvania, a highly contested swing state, the 2020 winner wasn’t declared until Nov. 7, four days after final votes were cast, according to PBS.
State officials say to not expect results the night of Nov. 5, according to WXTF, but did not outline when final results could be declared.
Kuk predicts Arizona and Nevada will be the slowest to count.
National media outlets will declare a winner based on vote counts days following the election, but total vote counts do not need to be reported until December.
If this is a nail-biter of a race, then it will take time to confidently know the final result,” Mallinson said. “It’s best for folks to be patient and tune out the noise that argues a slow result is anything other than getting the count right.”
States must issue certificates of ascertainment by Dec. 11, according to the National Archives. This precedes the date when electors cast their ballots, which is slated for Dec. 17.
This story was originally published November 5, 2024 at 12:55 PM with the headline "Could 2024 see a ‘red’ or ‘blue’ mirage? Why experts caution reading into early results."
