Will Texas see $5 gas? Here’s how high prices could play into Abbott, O’Rourke race
Gas prices are likely to be one of many talking points in the Texas midterm elections this year.
As oil and gas supply tries to catch up with global demand, prices in Texas reach record highs daily. According to the American Automobile Association, the average gas price in Texas was $4.29 as of Monday. In Fort Worth and Arlington, the average was $4.38 Monday.
Because Texas is both a producing and consuming state when it comes to oil and gas, the impact prices will have in the midterms is more complicated than in other states.
What role do gas prices play in Texas politics?
Texas is different from most states when it comes to the effect of the oil and gas industry. James Riddlesperger, a Texas Christian University political science professor, said oil-producing states react differently than oil-consuming states — Texas is both, so high gas prices act as a double-edged sword for the Lone Star state.
“For most Texans, the inflation that is in part spurred by energy prices really is grounds for concern, but for oil producers obviously this is a windfall,” he said.
Gas prices are part of a bigger picture of current consumer struggles, which includes higher grocery prices and a baby formula shortage, that can impact how people vote. Known as pocketbook issues, consumer-related concerns used to be the main influence on elections, Riddlesperger said, although in recent years it has become political party-based.
If economic issues continue by mid-July and closer to midterm elections, voters will want someone to blame, which usually falls on the incumbent party, he said. Nationally the blame could be placed on President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party; however, Texas politics have a different makeup from the Executive Office.
“It’s hard for Texas Republicans to blame the Democrats in Texas for much of anything because the Republicans have been in charge in Texas for the last quarter of a century, largely unchallenged,” Riddlesperger said. “None of this is as simple as it might look at first blush.”
Will gas prices have an impact on this election season?
High gas prices will impact the midterm elections, but it’s difficult to say which party it will advantage. Riddlesperger said typically economics falls into a national issue rather than a state issue when it comes to politics.
“My guess is that more voters are going to put the focus on national politics rather than local politics in terms of economics,” he said. “They’re more likely to blame the president for shortcomings than they are the governor of Texas.”
Riddlesperger said there are some ways gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke could use high gas prices to his advantage when talking against incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott, such as centering the narrative around the improper regulation of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas.
“Then the question becomes, ‘Whose narrative is it that is more compelling for the average voter?’” he said.
Can the governor help ease gas prices?
Similar to the president, state governors do not have direct control over gas prices.
One way Abbott could help is by rhetoric, reassuring voters that Texas Republicans will do everything in their power to deal with a situation overseen by a Democratic-led national government, Riddlesperger said.
Another way governors could help is by reducing the state gas tax, which is 20 cents per gallon, although Riddlesperger said he would be surprised to see that happen in Texas. Reducing the state gas tax would be a hit to state revenue that goes toward transportation projects, but it could be on the table in an election year.
Will Texas hit over $5 gas?
Gas prices are driven by supply catching up to increasing demand. Karr Ingham, Texas Alliance of Energy Producers petroleum economist, said slowing demand could help keep gas prices in check, however as Memorial Day nears and the summer season begins, more Texans are expected to hit the road for travel. The American Automobile Association in Texas predicts 3.2 million Texans will travel 50 miles or more from home this Memorial Day weekend, an increase of 8% from last year.
“We might well see $5 gasoline, but I think in addition to trying to stimulate more supply, which markets have not been as successful in that, I think they’ll be more successful in quashing demand a little bit. I think that’s certainly one of the reasons why I don’t expect to see $5 gasoline,” Ingham said.
The days of gas going down to around $2 is a long way off, he said. Prices will be dependent on how much the oil and gas industry will be able to provide globally to all its suppliers.
This story was originally published May 19, 2022 at 3:50 PM.
