How does uncertainty around President Trump’s tariffs affect Fort Worth schools?
As Trump administration officials threaten, then impose, then delay tariffs on the nation’s three biggest trading partners, school officials in Fort Worth are scrambling to figure out how those added costs would affect planned building projects.
The ever-changing tariff situation, coupled with immigration policies that are keeping many construction workers off job sites, are making it more complicated for school districts across the country to make plans, a national construction economist said.
On March 4, President Donald Trump announced he would impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, and a 15% tariff on imports from China. Leaders of all three countries announced retaliatory tariffs on all imported goods from the United States. Then, two days later, Trump partially walked back the change, delaying tariffs on some goods from Canada and Mexico until April 2.
Assuming they’re implemented eventually, the tariffs are expected to have a big impact on the construction industry. Two essential construction materials — softwood lumber and gypsum, which is used in drywall and cement — are largely sourced from Canada and Mexico, according to the National Association of Home Builders.
The uncertainty comes as the Fort Worth Independent School District is in the middle of developing a facilities plan to help the district keep up with declining enrollment. School officials expect to bring a plan to the district’s board sometime this spring. Although the plan is expected to include fewer campuses overall, it will likely also include construction and renovation at some schools.
District officials have emphasized that no final decisions have been made about which campuses they’ll keep and which ones they’ll shut down. But many of the scenarios officials presented in public meetings last month involved both school closures and new construction.
For example, one scenario in the North Side High School pyramid called for shutting down Kirkpatrick Middle School and merging its students into a larger, rebuilt J.P. Elder Middle School. In the Eastern Hills High School pyramid, two scenarios call for renovating Bill Elliott Elementary School and combining East Handley Elementary School and Atwood McDonald Elementary School, either at a rebuilt and expanded East Handley or Atwood McDonald.
Even as officials hammer out the details of the facilities plan, the district is also moving forward with construction projects voters approved as part of the 2021 bond issue. The $1.2 billion bond package largely focused on construction and renovations at older middle schools.
In a statement, Fort Worth ISD officials said they are “closely monitoring” any impact from the tariffs. Officials noted that, even before the tariffs went into effect, inflation and the rising cost of construction materials had already created budget challenges.
“The addition of tariffs would further strain resources, potentially limiting our ability to enhance learning environments as originally planned,” officials said. “Our priority remains delivering on our commitments to students and the community while navigating these financial pressures.”
Tariffs, immigration policy drive construction costs up
Ken Simonson, chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America, said the uncertainty around imports from the United States’ three biggest trading partners makes building projects more complicated. When contractors offer an estimated price for a project, they’re always making their best guess on what building materials and labor will cost, he said.
But when some external factor, like a tariff, changes the price of materials like steel and lumber overnight, it drives building costs up in ways contractors can’t predict, Simonson said. The uncertainty around what course of action the Trump administration will eventually take means contractors have to build more uncertainty into their cost estimates, he said.
For school districts, that means leaders get a less clear picture of what it will cost to build a new school or renovate or expand an existing building, Simonson said. Complicating matters further is the fact that school districts have to give voters an outline of their construction plans when they ask them to approve bond issues to fund those projects. Uncertainty around import costs makes it harder for school boards to pin down exactly how much funding they need to ask their communities to approve, he said. And when construction costs rise unexpectedly after voters have already approved a bond proposal, it means that money doesn’t go as far, meaning districts may not be able to deliver all the improvements they promised.
But uncertainty around tariffs isn’t the only factor complicating construction projects this year, Simonson said. Trump’s rhetoric on immigration and threats of mass deportations have affected the construction labor market, as well, he said.
Nationwide, about a third of the construction workforce is foreign-born, Simonson said. But in Texas, that figure is about 51%, he said. Not all of those workers are undocumented, he said. But even those who are in the country legally may be concerned about family members who don’t have legal status, he said. Some are also concerned about getting wrongfully swept up in immigration raids and struggling to prove their legal status, he said. When there are rumors that immigration authorities plan to raid a job site, or even someplace close by, those workers are likely to stay home, he said.
Contractors have struggled for decades to find enough skilled workers, he said, and if more of those workers get swept up in immigration raids or simply stay home to avoid being targeted for deportation, it will likely make building projects take longer and cost more to complete, Simonson said. Those costs, coupled with a tariff picture that seems to change almost by the hour, make it a difficult time for school districts to make construction plans.
“I’d call this uncertainty on steroids,” Simonson said.
This story was originally published March 10, 2025 at 5:00 AM.
