Tarrant COVID vaccinations have ‘fallen off a cliff.’ What that means for herd immunity
Demand for coronavirus vaccine has drastically fallen in Tarrant County and across Texas, pushing back projections for herd immunity.
North Texas was predicted to hit herd immunity by mid-June, according to UNT Health Science Center research. Now that has changed, given the declining vaccination rates.
“We are not on the same trajectory that we were on earlier this year,” said Dr. Sylvia Trent-Adams, HSC chief strategy officer. “I don’t think we’re going to get the herd immunity as early as we had originally anticipated.”
Long gone are the all-day wait times and futile searches for appointments. People can now register on the county’s website and get an appointment on the same day.
In Tarrant County, vaccine registrations are down 97% since the peak earlier this year. Statewide, the number of doses administered peaked in early April. Only 19% of Tarrant County residents and one third of the state’s residents are fully vaccinated.
The county stopped operating some sites and has limited hours at others.
To reach immunity, a minimum 80% of the population needs to be immune, which would make it safe to roll back mitigation strategies, according to experts.
More than 1 million doses have been administered in Tarrant County, but Trent-Adams said it’s no time to slow down. Most of the million aren’t fully vaccinated.
“It’s going to take a lot of work, education, motivation, and providing specialized services in under-served communities,” Trent-Adams said.
Vaccine supply is expected to outpace demand within the next month.
“You’re seeing this demand sort of fall off a cliff,” said Vinny Taneja, the county’s public health director. “And that worries me, because now is not the time to slow down.”
Taneja said the county will have to talk to the Texas Department of State Health Services about its allocation. The county has been getting about 18,000 to 20,000 doses per week and, if demand doesn’t pick up, that number might have to shrink.
“It seems we’re getting to the point that most people eager to get vaccinated have gotten at least their first dose,” said Imelda Garcia, associate commissioner of laboratory and infectious disease services for DSHS, during a press conference on April 22. “The next phase will be about helping ensure that vaccine is more easily available to those folks who are not going to go as far out of their way.”
Taneja urges people to get vaccinated before another potential surge. Same day appointments are now available, and no-appointment clinics have popped up. MedStar’s clinics have vaccinated people in minority neighborhoods such as Diamond Hill and Stop Six.
These efforts make it easier for residents in those communities to access the vaccine because it eliminates registration hiccups and the need to drive to other locations.
Trent-Adams said numerous factors have affected registration numbers, including the loss of faith because of the Johnson & Johnson pause, medical mistrust and a lack of access, especially for those minority communities.
Typically, when a new vaccine is introduced, Trent-Adams said, there tends to be an early wave of eager people and then it decreases before picking once people change their mind.
UNTHSC has partnered with Tarrant County to reach communities that have traditionally mistrusted the medical field. A vaccination site opened in Stop Six and, for the most part, Trent-Adams said they have gotten good feedback. But with every community there are people who will not be open to new ideas, she said.
The best community leaders can do is present the information and continually educate people about how the vaccine is the best way to go back to normal. But it doesn’t stop with the vaccine, she said.
Leaders must continue to improve health care in those communities that have had a historic mistrust. The pandemic has shined a light on health disparities that need to be addressed, she said.
To increase demand, Trent-Adams said public health leaders need to be innovative in the way they educate and get people the vaccine. UNTHSC is looking at ways to bring more translated material to communities. It is also looking to bring the vaccine to places like the Diamond Hill neighborhood, which is largely Hispanic.
An effort will also be underway soon to get vaccines to homebound individuals. Tarrant County Judge Glen Whitley said the commissioners will also soon discuss giving people gift cards or other monetary prizes if they get vaccinated. The money to fund this would come from the latest coronavirus relief fund. The county expects to receive about $407 million to help residents and cover COVID-19 related costs.
Whitley also said maybe the county needs more pop-up vaccine events, such as possibly after a Rangers game. A Rangers spokesperson said the team has not had this talk with county officials but would be open to the idea.
Trent-Adams also said UNTHSC could go to high traffic grocery stores in minority communities and other events.
Another issue Whitley and the county need to tackle is getting young people vaccinated. In Tarrant County, only 9% of those vaccinated are 16 to 24.
In a Wednesday press release, Dallas County officials said they are seeing an increase of COVID-19 in younger populations. Only one quarter of those 18 to 29 years have received at least one dose of a vaccine.
“They think they’re invincible,” Whitley said.
