Tarrant hospitals will be full within 30 days unless we reverse COVID trend, report says
Dallas and Tarrant County hospitals will likely reach maximum capacity in the next 30 days unless serious COVID-19 restrictions are enforced, a report from the University of North Texas’ Health Science Center predicted.
The coronavirus pandemic is only going to worsen over the holiday season, and Dallas-Fort Worth could see “catastrophic effects,” according to the report, which was led by Rajesh R. Nandy, associate professor of biostatistics and epidemiology at the HSC School of Public Health.
The report, released Friday, is the latest in a series by Nandy and his data analytics team. In a July report, his team found that the mask-wearing mandate helped stabilize the surge in coronavirus cases locally.
Nandy refers to Texas — and DFW specifically — as hotspots for coronavirus transmission. As cases rise, Nandy lays out evidence that hospitals will become overwhelmed and COVID-19 related deaths will increase.
“Unless there is a reversal of trend, we run the risk of reaching maximum capacity in hospitals very quickly,” the report says.
Tarrant County will reach 100% hospital occupancy when the expected new daily COVID-19-related admissions reach 371. Dallas hospitals would reach their maximum occupancy if the county saw an average of 460 new COVID-19-related hospital admissions. According to Nandy’s projections, both counties could reach maximum capacity within a month.
As of Monday, Tarrant County had 1,144 available hospital beds and 3,875 occupied beds, making the occupancy rate 77%. Confirmed COVID-19 patients took up 778 beds, which was 20% of the occupied beds and 16% of total beds, according to data from the Tarrant County website.
The report gives two caveats to the hospital prediction. First, many individual hospitals are already operating at or near maximum capacity. Secondly, “these estimates are crude, since conditions are evolving, and the growth is exponential in nature.”
Once hospitals operate at or above normal maximum capacity, more people are likely to die due to potential lack of best treatment, the report says.
The report also lays out two scenarios of COVID-19 case numbers for the coming weeks. The first scenario is based on if the current trend of rising cases continues. The second is based on “modest reduction” in case rates — which could happen if the media continues to provide “extended coverage of the alarming situation” and local measures are taken, Nandy predicts. If Fort Worth ISD switched from in-person instruction to online only, this would also reduce the spread of COVID-19, the report says.
These two actions alone would be somewhat effective in causing a reduction in COVID-19 transmission, Nandy writes.
But those actions likely would not be enough to stop hospitals from becoming overwhelmed.
Instead, Nandy makes a list of recommendations for how Dallas-Fort Worth can slow the spread of COVID-19:
- Close bars, gyms and restrict dining in at restaurants.
- Wear masks even at outdoor gatherings.
- Avoid residential, social gatherings indoors.
- Avoid family holidays such as Thanksgiving, Christmas and Hanukkah.
- If all else fails, enforce shelter-in-place.
Under Gov. Greg Abbott’s orders, restrictions such as closing bars and reducing capacity at other businesses will take effect if COVID-19 hospitalizations in a Trauma Service Area exceed 15% of capacity for seven consecutive days.
As of Monday, COVID-19 hospitalizations in the 19-county North Texas Trauma Service Area were at about 13.4% of capacity, according to state data.
Tarrant County health officials last week described the COVID-19 surge as “dire” and pleaded for restaurants to voluntarily reduce capacity and bars to close to help slow the spread of the coronavirus.
Abbott has said he will not order a statewide lockdown again.
As the current rate stands, Nandy expects to see 2,600 people die from COVID-19 in Texas in the next two weeks. UNT’s analysis pointed out experts estimate a lag of 14 days between the trend for daily new reported cases and the daily new reported deaths.
At the end of the report, Nandy encourages the public to remain patient and vigilant.
“There has been a noticeable COVID fatigue in the general public, which is understandable due to the long haul with no end in sight (until recently),” Nandy wrote. “However, help is on the way with two recent highly successful vaccine trials. We can eradicate the virus once the vaccines are commercially available.”
This story was originally published November 23, 2020 at 5:14 PM.
