Without mask mandate, North Texas COVID ‘mini surge’ likely to continue, scientist says
Mask-covered faces and social distancing were rare this weekend in the Fort Worth-area — two major factors causing the recent surge of novel coronavirus cases in North Texas.
The region is experiencing a “mini surge” of the deadly virus, according to research from HSC Fort Worth, which also noted that wearing a mask dramatically reduces the spread of coronavirus. Though Texas Gov. Greg Abbott says cities and counties can mandate that businesses require patrons to wear them, Fort Worth and Tarrant County officials have been reluctant to enforce masks.
Tarrant County passed 9,000 coronavirus cases Monday.
Many things may have caused the recent increase, but venturing into crowds more and not wearing a mask appear to be the two biggest factors, said Rajesh Nandy, an associate professor of biostatistics and epidemiology at the University of North Texas Health Science Center at Fort Worth.
Nandy called it “a deadly combination.”
He looked at cellphone tracking data along with the number of new cases in Dallas, Tarrant, Denton and Collin counties and saw an increase in cases as people began to travel around the Metroplex when stay-at-home orders were lifted. He also looked at the rate of transmission in 147 counties across the country and found the virus is “significantly” less likely to be spread where officials have demanded people wear masks.
Where no mask mandates existed, Nandy found that coronavirus spread at an increasing rate, but in counties that required masks, transmission slowed to a rate that suggested the virus would eventually stop spreading. He said he would strongly recommend public officials require masks as the “lowest cost, more efficient way to reduce the coronavirus cases.”
“Mandates on masks appear to be quite effective,” he said, noting that mask guidelines can potentially prevent thousands of coroanvirus cases. “I would argue we should start enforcing masks in public places.”
Wearing a mask benefits two groups, Nandy said. Researchers strongly agree masks protect others from catching COVID-19 from a person wearing the mask. But there is some evidence they also protect the person wearing a mask, he said.
A study published in Nature Medicine in April found surgical masks blocked almost all contagious droplets the wearers expelled as well as smaller particles that can linger in the air. The study looked at the seasonal flu and common coronaviruses.
The mayors of Texas’ largest cities, including Fort Worth and Arlington, last week requested Abbott allow local officials to enforce the wearing of face masks.
Fort Worth Mayor Betsy Price has said she won’t mandate masks. During last week’s City Council meeting, she said she wanted the governor to support a statewide mask wearing campaign, but wouldn’t support a local mandate because she didn’t believe people would comply with it.
Appearing on CNN on Monday, Price said she didn’t believe mandates were any more effective than asking people to voluntarily wear them. She stressed that people should think of others, including the risk that not wearing a mask may pose for loved ones.
“This is about local control and letting people take personal responsibility,” Price told CNN’s John King.
Later in the the interview she said: “I think that having the option to help mandate masks for our businesses is another tool in our toolbox, but not one that we’re prone to use in Fort Worth or Tarrant County. We need people to comply and begin to listen.”
Masks in Fort Worth
Mask wearing was not the norm this past weekend around Fort Worth.
At nearly 30 grocery stores, restaurants, parks and other public spaces, Star-Telegram reporters found motley mask usage. In many cases, employees wore masks while social distancing themselves, but customers were less likely to.
In line at Joe T. Garcia’s Saturday morning, for instance, an estimated 5% of customers wore masks and few practiced social distancing. Employees at the Montgomery Plaza Target wore masks, but only a third of the customers covered their faces.
During a crowded soccer practice near Benbrook Lake, not a single person could be seen wearing a mask.
Crowds at other places appeared to be doing better.
At a Central Market on Hulen, where a sign on the door proclaimed masks are required, about 85% of customers had one on Friday, but that number fell to around 75% on Saturday. It was about the same at a Tom Thumb nearby. At the Hollywood Feed between Camp Bowie and West Seventh Street, almost everyone wore a mask.
Continued spike
Nandy’s research at HSC Fort Worth matches a new study from UT Southwestern Medical Center that predicts a surge in coronavirus cases throughout the summer and into the fall.
According to that study, current social distancing and prevention measures are 63% effective in slowing the spread of the coronavirus. The study predicts 500 new daily cases in August and more than 900 cases a day by November.
The report also predicts a 20% increase in hospitalizations over the next two weeks.
“Great caution must be exercised during any upcoming Independence Day celebrations,” the report said.
Nandy’s research showed that during April, when most of the Metroplex was under a stay-at-home-order, people traveled 40% less than they did before the pandemic, he said. Now that those orders have lifted, people are going out almost as often as they used to.
Nandy said a new stay-at-home order was likely infeasible and may not be as effective as the original shutdown.
“People should absolutely be wearing a mask,” he said.
