Study predicts massive North Texas coronavirus surge throughout summer and into fall
A new study from UT Southwestern Medical Center predicts a surge in coronavirus cases throughout the summer and into the fall.
The report, which is part of a series during the pandemic, examined the latest trends in the North Texas region, including hospitalizations and age.
“If the current path continues, cases will grow significantly throughout the summer and autumn in the absence of increased adherence to recommended physical distancing guidelines (keeping 6 feet between people) and wide-spread use of masks,” the report said.
According to the data, current social distancing and prevention measures are 63% effective in slowing the spread of the coronavirus. If that remains, the study predicts 500 new daily cases in August and more than 900 cases a day by November. The projections worsen if the effective rate lowers and improve if the rate increases. For example, the study shows if the effective prevention rate improves by just 2%, daily case averages would eventually fall to about 200 by November. If the effective rate was 68%, the study says new cases would be nearly nonexistent by November.
If the prevention rate drops to 61% daily coronavirus cases could balloon to more than 1,000 a day be August.
UT Southwestern blames recent holiday weekends, in part, for an increase in COVID-19 hospitalizations.
The report predicts a 20% increase in hospitalizations over the next two weeks.
“Great caution must be exercised during any upcoming Independence Day celebrations,” the report said.
The recent spike in North Texas cases is primarily due to increased cases in younger age groups, especially ages 21-40, according to the report. In June, 50% of COVID-19 hospitalized patients and 30% of ICU patients have been under 50.
The report doesn’t mention a correlation between recent social justice mass gatherings among young adults.
COVID-19 Hospitalizations over Time
Coronavirus daily hospitalization counts in Texas and the larger Trauma Service Areas, beginning April 8, 2020. Data provided by Texas Health and Human Services.
This story was originally published June 22, 2020 at 2:03 PM.
