Study predicts July surge of 800 daily coronavirus cases in Dallas area at current safety level
North Texas could see a storm of new coronavirus cases by July if current social distancing and other preventive measures remain intact, according to a study conducted by disease experts at UT Southwestern Medical Center.
The study, which analyzed the available data from Dallas, Tarrant, Collin and Denton Counties on May 10-12, found that social distancing directives largely worked to slow the spread of COVID-19 cases in the region.
But since the state began to loosen those restrictions on May 1, the containment of the spread has been about 60% effective, according to the study.
The study “examined how well preventive measures including masking, staying at home, social distancing, handwashing and others have limited infection, and what might happen looking forward,” the press release said. “Model-building is an iterative process and a model is just a model. This model should not be used to make any concrete decisions.”
The model forecast an ugly summer for North Texas if current social distancing measures remain as is.
The study predicts more than 800 new coronavirus cases each day in Dallas County by July under the state’s current measures, which the study says are about 60% effective at slowing the spread. As you’d expect, the forecast is worse if the measures’ effectiveness are weakened and much better if they’re strengthened. In the past week, Dallas County has reported about 200 new cases per day.
“Remember that the effect of more people moving around after the Governor’s Reopen Texas announcement on April 27 has not begun to be felt yet and we don’t know what that impact will be,” Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins said in a release. “Therefore, it’s important that all of us continue to make smart, personal responsibility decisions: avoiding crowds, maintaining social distancing, wearing face coverings on public transportation and at businesses while practicing good hygiene.”
If the measures weaken to 57% effectiveness, the study shows, Dallas County would reach 800 daily cases next month. If the current measures improved to 65% effective, the daily new cases would remain steady through the end of the year. Increasing the effectiveness to 69% could force the pandemic into a decline, the study suggests.
The study shows how Dallas County’s restrictive measures issued on March 23 slowed the spread dramatically. Gov. Greg Abbott waited until April 1 to issue statewide social distancing orders. The study suggests Dallas County would have been overrun with more than 90,000 total coronavirus cases by May if it had waited to institute the stay-at-home order. The county had more than 6,800 cases, including 159 deaths, as of Thursday.
Tarrant County has confirmed almost 4,300 cases, including 120 deaths, as of Friday.
In Tarrant County, new COVID-19 infections are expected to outpace new recoveries slightly over the next two weeks, according to the study, which predicts the number of new infections will reach about 160 per day.
This story was originally published May 15, 2020 at 5:24 PM.
