Is there a meat shortage? In Fort Worth, it depends where you look
Missy Bonds, a rancher in Saginaw, wakes up at 4 a.m. to help load dozens of cattle into semi-trucks headed to feed yards in Colorado and New Mexico. There, cattle are fed grass until they are an optimal weight to be sold for slaughter.
“As it stands right now, there’s no meat shortage,” said Bonds earlier this week. “Do not think you have to go out and rush the grocery stores to buy up everything and stock up.”
But even if customers wanted to rush the meat counter, most major grocery chains in North Texas, including Sam’s Club, Kroger, Tom Thumb and Albertsons, are already limiting meat purchases.
Prices Skyrocket
Nationwide the price of meat is going up, meaning choices will be fewer, especially during the grilling season, and you won’t be able to buy as much as you want.
The wholesale price of USDA Choice boxed beef cutout was $4.61 a pound Friday morning, up from $2.07 on March 10. Boxed beef cutout represents the estimated gross value of a beef carcass, based on prices paid for individual beef cuts, according to Justin Benavidez, an economist and assistant professor for the Texas A&M AgriLife Extension program in Amarillo.
Benavidez explained that a price increase is a sign of a shortage, but what will probably happen is fewer steaks and more roasts and ground beef.
“A lot of what we’re going to be facing is the fact that people are out of work,” Benavidez said. “During a recession, purchasing habits change, so you’re probably going to see a lot more cheap cuts.”
He said the only way we’d run out of meat is if all the meat packing plants closed, which is highly unlikely.
A Bottleneck
On April 22, Texas Department of State Health Services officials visited a JBS beef plant in Cactus after more than 100 workers tested positive for coronavirus. After walking the plant, officials determined the company was following the best practices for an essential business and could remain open.
But operations have ceased in dozens of meatpacking plants owned by major U.S. meat processors, including Tyson, Cargill, Smithfield and JBS.
Since the start of the pandemic, at least 20 workers have died of COVID-19, and 4,913 workers in 115 plants have tested positive, according to the latest Center for Disease Control and Prevention numbers.
On April 28, President Donald Trump signed an executive order invoking the Defense Production Act to keep meat processing plants open, but at least seven plants have closed.
On Monday, Tyson announced its hog processing capacity was down 50% due to COVID-19. Joe Harris, CEO of the Southwest Meat Association, said beef production is down between 30% and 40%. Harris sees the meat industry as a big hourglass with retailers and consumers at the bottom, ranchers and their cattle on the top and meatpacking plants in the center.
“When you have a slowdown in the narrowest part, livestock is going to pile up and we’re going to get a smaller stream of meat coming out the other side,” Harris said. “It’s inevitable.”
Delayed Effect
But the effects of this bottleneck could take some time to hit the grocery stores because there are tons of meat in cold storage.
In late March, there was more than 1.4 million pounds of frozen red meat in cold storage nationwide, up 2% from February and 11% from the previous year, according to the latest USDA report.
That’s about a two-week buffer, according to Benavidez, who explained most of the cold storage meat is in transit to grocers and restaurants.
“This was stuff already in the pipeline for private industry, on its way to its intended destiny,” he said. “So it’s not something that’s necessarily easy to shift in a sudden emergency at any one time.”
Another reason for the delayed impact has been that most dine-in restaurants have been closed. But now that Texas and other states have begun to ease restrictions and open the economy, things have started to change.
Burger or Steak?
On Monday, the fast food chain Wendy’s, whose slogan is ‘fresh, never frozen,’ announced it may be facing a meat shortage, according to a report by WYMT in Hazard, Kentucky. McDonald’s and Burger King have not reported issues.
Beef patties increased from $4.82 to $5.88 a pound this week but remained comparable to the same time last year when the average price was $5.90 a pound, according to the latest USDA national retail report. Prices for prime stakes are also on the rise. The average price for a bone-in ribeye steak was $8.12 a pound this week, compared to $7.62 last week and $6.99 a year ago, according to the report.
Nick Nickelson, co-owner of The Meat Board butcher shop in Fort Worth, said the shop’s supply has not been affected.
The Meat Board sells premium steaks such as ribeye, filet mignon and strip steaks. In an emailed statement Nickelson said all of their suppliers have taken proactive steps to ensure the safety of their employees and customers.
“I’m really proud to be a rancher and a beef producer in the United States,” said Fort Worth rancher Bonds. “Most other countries don’t have a grass-fed product with that pretty white edge of fat and really pretty marbling and red coloring.”
“Despite this bottleneck and uncertainty in the market we’re still out here producing that product,” she added. “We are still out here making sure we are able to feed our country.”
This story was originally published May 8, 2020 at 4:14 PM.
