NBA playoff predictions: Here’s who will win in first round
The NBA playoffs come in all shapes and sizes.
There are some heavyweights such as Golden State and San Antonio. There are sleepers such Toronto and Miami.
Let the games begin:
WESTERN CONFERENCE
No. 1 Golden State Warriors (73-9) vs. No. 8 Houston Rockets (41-41)
Warriors won season series 3-0
How they got there: The Warriors won their first 24 games this season and went on to set an NBA single-season record with 73 wins. Golden State never lost to the same team twice and never lost two games in a row. Stephen Curry led the NBA in scoring and also made 402 3-point baskets — breaking his own record by 116. The Rockets experienced turmoil this season. They fired coach Kevin McHale after a 4-7 start, and didn’t clinch a playoff berth until they won at home against Sacramento 116-81 in the regular-season finale.
Key to the series: The Rockets have to get major performances from James Harden, Dwight Howard and at least one other person. And Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green would have to be ineffective — for four games. This is a repeat of last season’s Western Conference Finals, which the Warriors won in five games.
Prediction: Warriors in 5
No. 2 San Antonio Spurs (67-15) vs. No. 7 Memphis Grizzlies (42-40)
Spurs won season series 4-0
How they got there: The Spurs set a franchise record for wins in a season with 67. In the regular-season finale at Dallas, the Spurs left Kawhi Leonard, Tony Parker, LaMarcus Aldridge, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and David West at home, fell behind the Mavericks by 18 points in the second half, and still came back and won 96-91. The Grizzlies limped into the playoffs with losses in 14 of their last 17 games. Because of injuries, Memphis used 28 players this season. That’s the most players any team has used in one season in NBA history, breaking the Mavericks’ 1996-97 record of 27.
Key to the series: The Spurs allowed a league-low 92.9 points per game, and scored at a clip of 103.5 points a game. The Spurs can win with the speed game and with the half-court game. Spurs defensive wizard Kawhi Leonard can shut down any of the perimeter players. The Grizzlies won’t have Marc Gasol and Mike Conley because of injuries.
Prediction: Spurs in 4
No. 3 Oklahoma City Thunder (55-27) vs. No. 6 Dallas Mavericks (42-40)
Thunder won season series 4-0
How they got there: After missing 55 games last year with a foot injury, Kevin Durant was flawless this season. He finished third in the NBA in scoring (28.2 ppg), and also averaged 8.2 rpg and 5.0 apg. Guard Russell Westbrook had a league-high 18 triple doubles. Mavericks superstar Dirk Nowitzki averaged a team-high 18.3 ppg this season. But Deron Williams, Wesley Matthews, J.J. Barea, Devin Harris, Justin Anderson, Zaza Pachulia and others must do their fair share if the Mavs have designs on upsetting the Thunder.
Key to the series: The Mavericks must find a way to keep the games at a snail’s pace. Otherwise, they have absolutely no chance of winning this series. The Mavericks also have to keep their turnovers at a minimum, and stay close to the Thunder on the boards, on second-chance points and on fast-break points.
Prediction: Thunder in 6
No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers (53-29) vs. No. 5 Portland Trail Blazers (44-38)
Clippers won season series 3-1
How they got there: Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan led the way for the Clippers. But Blake Griffin endured a subpar, injury-riddled season marred by a fight he had with a Clippers employee during a road trip to Toronto. After losing four starters in the off-season, few gave the new-look Blazers any chance at making the playoffs. But Damian Lillard was in All-Star form — even though he was left off the West roster at midseason — and C. J. McCollum enjoyed a breakout season, making Portland the surprise team of the league.
Key to the series: Wherever Clippers forward Blake Griffin is in terms of health and conditioning will be the key. Because of injuries and a suspension, Griffin played only 35 games this season. Since being injured in a Christmas Day game against the LA Lakers, he played just five games, averaging 8.4 points, 6.8 rebounds in 24.6 minutes per game.
Prediction: Clippers in 7
EASTERN CONFERENCE
No. 1 Cleveland Cavaliers (57-25) vs. No. 8 Detroit Pistons (44-38)
How they got there: In the middle of the season, the Cavs fired coach David Blatt and replaced him with assistant coach Tyronn Lue. Blatt got the Cavs to the Finals last year, and they were 30-11 when he got his pink slip. Under Lue, the Cavs went 27-14. The Cavs had the third-best home record in the NBA at 33-8. For Detroit, center Andre Drummond and guard Reggie Jackson are a feisty one-two punch. Jackson averaged 18.8 points and 6.2 assists. Drummond averaged 16.2 points and led the NBA in rebounds (14.8) and double-doubles (66).
Key to the series: Cleveland’s biggest problem is that the Cavaliers play too cavalierly sometimes, believing that good things will come to them if they just show up for the game. That could be dangerous against the hungry Pistons. However, LeBron James is 10-0 in first-round playoff series.
Prediction: Cavs in 5
No. 2 Toronto Raptors (56-26) vs. Indiana Pacers (45-37)
Raptors won season series 3-1
How they got there: The Raptors won the Atlantic Division and set a franchise record for wins in a season with 56. All-Stars Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are leaders. The two combined to averaged 44.7 points and 10.4 assists. Indiana eked into the playoffs by winning six of its final seven games, including a 123-109 victory over Cleveland. Paul George (23.1 ppg) and Monta Ellis (13.8 ppg) were pivotal for the Pacers. Rookie forward Myles Turner (10.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 22.8 mpg) of Euless Trinity and the University of Texas more than held his own.
Key to the series: Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are the Eastern Conference’s version of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, but not with as much touch from behind the 3-point arc. If those two are on top of their game, this will be a short series.
Prediction: Raptors in 6
No. 3 Miami Heat (48-34) vs. No. 6 Charlotte Hornets (48-34)
Season series tied 2-2
How they got there: Miami won the Southeast Division, primarily because Dwyane Wade averaged 19 ppg. Center Hassan Whiteside averaged 14.2 ppg, was third in the NBA in rebounds (11.8 rpg), led the league in blocks (3.68 bpg), and was tied for eighth in double-doubles (41). The Heat will be without Chris Bosh, who has been out since the All-Star break with a blood clot. Charlotte won nine of its last 13 games. Kemba Walker (20.9 ppg) and Nicolas Batum (14.9 ppg, 6.1 rpg) are the buttons the Hornets push in order to get the job done.
Key to the series: This series will be in Wade’s hands. Joe Johnson, a late-season pickup, could play a major role for the Heat. Charlotte led the league in fewest turnovers at 11.9 per game. If the Hornets can continue that trend they can win this series.
Prediction: Heat in 6
No. 4 Atlanta Hawks (48-34) vs. No. 5 Boston Celtics (48-34)
Hawks won season series 3-1
How they got there: The Hawks crawled into the playoffs, losing four of their last seven games. Paul Millsap (17.1 ppg, 9.0 rpg), Jeff Teague (15.7 ppg, 5.9 apg) and Al Horford (15.2 ppg, 7.3 rpg) are Atlanta’s three-headed monster. The Celtics were one of the surprise teams in the league. Guard Isaiah Thomas (22.2 ppg, 6.2 apg) earned his first All-Star berth. Texas-ex Avery Bradley (15.2 ppg) and former Dallas Mavericks swingman Jae Crowder (14.2 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 1.73 spg) played big.
Key to the series: Both teams like to get in the lanes and feast off turnovers. The Celtics finished tied for first in the NBA in turnovers forced (15.8), and the Hawks weren’t too far behind at 15.5. The team that can consistently force their tempo will ultimately win this series.
Prediction: Celtics in 6
This story was originally published April 15, 2016 at 7:20 PM with the headline "NBA playoff predictions: Here’s who will win in first round."