Texas Democrats see opportunity in Trump’s emergence

With Donald Trump now the prohibitive Republican frontrunner after winning this week’s New York primary, Democrats in Texas are more hopeful than ever that the billionaire’s emergence will help them in November.

Republicans say it’s just wishful thinking, but Democrats are hoping that Trump’s controversial comments will make some GOP voters stay home in protest and boost the number of Democrats going to the polls to vote against him if he becomes one of the presidential nominees. If that happens, it could help Democrats down the ballot.

“Democrats know they have no choice but to turn out and vote,” said Deborah Peoples, who heads the Tarrant County Democratic Party. “The more caustic and divisive that Trump’s message becomes — and he has insulted every group in America — the more it energizes people to turn out and do something.

“And if Republicans decide to stay home and Democrats decide not to stay home, it could be a good thing for us in Tarrant County.”

Either of those options could affect candidates farther down the ballot, from state representatives to constables, who already see fewer votes than candidates at the top of the ballot.

Local Republicans say they hope Democrats don’t get their hopes too high over the possibilities if Trump is the GOP presidential nominee.

“I think there will definitely be a Trump effect,” said Jennifer Hall, who heads the Tarrant County Republican Party. “Trump affected almost every vote in the primary — people either came out to vote for him or against him.

“But we are hearing from a number of Democrats who say if Trump is our nominee, they will vote for him,” she said. “They say they like him better than Hillary [Clinton] or Bernie [Sanders].”

No matter what, Hall said she doesn’t think many in her party will sit out the election.

“I think people are so motivated since President Obama is at the end of his term that Republicans will want to vote for their nominee,” she said.

Down ballot impact

This year, turnout in Texas’ Republican Primary was twice as big as the turnout for Texas’ Democratic Primary — 2.8 million to 1.4 million, state election records show.

In a state where many voters choose to vote a straight party ticket, political observers generally predict easy victory for most GOP candidates.

Unless Republicans in November forgo the straight party ticket because they want to cross over for the Democratic presidential candidate — or choose to cast no vote in that race at all.

That could potentially pose problems in down ballot races, even in Tarrant County with its reliably GOP voter base.

“County and city races may be hardest hit, along with judicial races,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, an associate professor of political science at the University of Houston. “Without a steady Republican turnout, the usual higher turnout in a presidential election will bring more Democrats and may cost the party some local seats.

“When given a reason, Democrats do turn out in big numbers, especially in presidential elections,” he said. “Trump’s bombastic political swagger may encourage less frequent Democrats to get to the polls and spike Democratic numbers around the area.”

Not only that, but GOP candidates in general might be tainted for some voters.

“The image of Republican candidates in down-ballot races would be tarnished in the eyes of some regular Republican voters due to their indirect association with Trump as their party’s presidential standard bearer,” said Mark P. Jones, a political science professor at Rice University in Houston.

“Trump’s anti-Latino rhetoric would be utilized by Democrats to ramp up Latino turnout and to drive a wedge between Latinos and the Republican Party,” he said. “Since Latinos in Texas tend to lean Democratic, higher Latino turnout alone will benefit Democrats, let alone if formerly Republican leaning Latinos switch their support to Democratic candidates as a result of Trump’s candidacy.”

But the presidential race could pose problems for Democrats as well, as Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders continue to battle for the nomination.

“Democrats have their own problems and issues with Sanders and Clinton and some polls show that upward of 25 percent of Sanders supporters will not vote for Clinton in the general election,” said Allan Saxe, an associate professor of political science at the University of Texas at Arlington.

“It is such a splinter hyper-election season that predictability is almost impossible.”

Third party?

Republicans could also face challenges if, during a brokered convention, Trump doesn’t receive the GOP nomination, and — despite earlier promises — chooses to run as a third-party candidate.

“His ego is so big that I think he would look at a third party bid,” Peoples said. “I think the Republican Party thought he would go away, that he would implode.

“They didn’t gauge the anger in the party from those who felt left out,” she said. “If he doesn’t get the numbers he needs, if he doesn’t get the nomination, you have this constituency that will feel that they have been cheated.”

In that scenario, voters supporting Trump could head to the polls solely for the presidential race and abandon all down ballot races, observers say.

This comes at a time when congressional members with Tarrant County ties face opponents in November, as do more than half a dozen local legislative incumbents.

Other local races where incumbents face opponents in November include Tarrant County’s tax assessor-collector, a county commissioner post and a constable post.

Even once the presidential nominees are chosen, political observers say no one really knows what will happen in November.

“Trump may bring new voters into the mix, but they may not be customary Republican voters,” Rottinghaus said. “This will decrease the ability of the Republican Party to animate the base and absorb voters excited about Trump but less interested in other Republicans.”

Cruz: A Texas son

No matter what, local Democrats say Trump could bring good things in November.

“If Trump does get the nomination, it’s good for the Democrats. And if he doesn’t, it’s good for Democrats,” Peoples said. “I don’t think we lose either way.”

Hall said some voters — from both parties — likely will stay home in November, just as they did in 2012.

“I think it will impact some straight party votes, but Democrats are more straight party voters than Republicans,” she said. “It will have some impact, but I don’t know how big.”

But Jones said Tarrant County Republicans will have more of a buffer against the Trump impact than other members of the GOP across the state.

“Given the built-in electoral cushion enjoyed by Republicans, … a Trump candidacy’s negative impact for down-ballot Republicans in Tarrant County would primarily be seen in smaller margins of victory, not in the loss of currently Republican held positions,” Jones said.

“This is much more of a concern of Harris County Republicans, … who could see themselves losing most county-wide races this fall if Trump is the GOP nominee.”

Even so, Peoples predicts that local down-ballot Democratic candidates will have a harder road to hoe if Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas is the presidential nominee.

“Ted Cruz is an elected official in Texas,” Peoples said. “He already has a constituency who will go vote for him.

“If he’s the nominee, I feel that fewer people will stay home,” Peoples said. “He’s a Texas son — he’s already been elected once.”

This story was originally published April 20, 2016 at 4:02 PM with the headline "Texas Democrats see opportunity in Trump’s emergence."