Cruz leads Trump in new Texas primary poll

With a week remaining before the Texas Republican primary, U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz has an 8-percentage-point lead over Donald Trump, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.

Cruz had 37 percent of the vote in the poll. Trump, the businessman and TV personality who finished first in two of the three states that have already voted, had the support of 29 percent, followed by U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio at 15 percent.

The rest of the candidates were far behind: Jeb Bush, who dropped out of the race after the South Carolina primary, had 6 percent; John Kasich, 5 percent; and Ben Carson, 4 percent. The rest of the candidates on the Texas Republican ballot barely registered: Rand Paul, Carly Fiorina, Rick Santorum, Elizabeth Gray, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee and Chris Christie each got 2 percent or less. Several of those candidates have already suspended their campaigns but were included in the poll because all of their names remain on the Texas ballot.

“These numbers reflect what most of us think was going on in Texas: It’s decent ground for Donald Trump because he’s a national candidate who’s touched a nerve everywhere, but it displays a little bit of a home-field advantage for Ted Cruz,” said Daron Shaw, co-director of the poll and a professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin.

What looked like a three-candidate race coming out of South Carolina looks more like a two-person race in Texas, with Cruz and Trump almost certainly in position to split the state’s 155 Republican delegates.

Shaw pointed out that the poll was completed on the eve of the South Carolina primary and said the results there — and Jeb Bush’s decision to drop out — could change the dynamics in Texas. He also said all three of the top candidates have good reason to campaign here since Texas is not a winner-take-all state and strong second- and third-place finishes could win some delegates here.

“Ted Cruz is popular among Texas Republicans, particularly among the more intense conservatives we expect to show up on primary election day,” Henson said. “Second, Texas is not as unlike the rest of the United States as we sometimes like to think. Donald Trump’s celebrity and substantive appeal — such as it is — clearly has an audience among Texas Republicans.”

Henson also noted Bush’s small numbers. “There was no redemption in Texas for Jeb Bush, even before South Carolina,” he said.

Age differences

Cruz led in all age groups, notably among voters ages 18 to 29 and voters ages 30 to 44. Trump pulled close among 45- to 64-year-olds, and Cruz had a 9-percentage-point lead among voters over 65. Rubio had 21 percent of that oldest group — his best showing in the age brackets.

The Cruz and Trump voters were more certain of their choices than the voters attracted to other candidates. More than two-thirds of their voters said they were “extremely certain” about their choice of candidates, compared with 41 percent for Rubio, 29 percent for Carson, 27 percent for Kasich and 22 percent for Bush.

Few of those surveyed expressed uncertainty about their choice, preferring to select either “extremely” or “somewhat” certain. But in Bush’s case, 24 percent said they were “not very certain” about voting for him and 11 percent said they were “not at all certain” about it. In Carson’s, 21 percent were “not very certain,” and 10 percent of those who said they support Rubio expressed some doubts.

For all of the talk about shaking things up in this year’s elections, only 15 percent of Republican primary voters said that was the most important factor. Their first reason for choosing a particular candidate, with 21 percent, was to “improve the American economy,” followed by giving the Republican Party a good chance to win in November.

The University of Texas/Texas Tribune Internet survey of 1,200 registered voters was conducted from Feb. 12 to Feb. 19 and has an overall margin of error of +/- 3.48 percentage points. Among registered voters in Republican primary races, the margin of error is +/- 4.21 percentage points; in Democratic primary races, it is +/- 5.44 percentage points. Numbers in charts might not add up to 100 percent because of rounding.

This story was originally published February 23, 2016 at 8:26 AM with the headline "Cruz leads Trump in new Texas primary poll."