Texas Rangers have a ‘magic number’ to make the playoffs. It’s possible | Opinion
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Rangers need 86 total wins to keep realistic playoff hopes alive this season.
- Team must go 20-10 in final 30 games despite poor road record and injuries.
- Pitching, fielding rank high league-wide; offense remains key vulnerability.
The Texas Rangers have spent more time this year under .500 than above, and making the postseason will require them to play at a level they last achieved in 2023.
Even if the majority of their fans have given up on this quest, and moved on to the ritual of worshipping all things football, there is an unofficial magic number that if the Rangers reach would nearly guarantee a partial salvage of this season.
If the Rangers somehow make the playoffs, the season is a success. Eighty-six wins should do it.
“I think that’s a pretty close number, yeah; there is a really good chance there,” Rangers manager Bruce Bochy said Monday, two hours before their game against the Angels. “I like the way we’re playing right now. This is a team that has a history of responding when their backs are against the wall; I don’t think they’re quite to the wall, but we have to win games. There is no getting around it.
“It’s right in front of us. We know it. They know it. It doesn’t matter who you are playing, either.”
(To believe the Rangers reaching 86 wins this season is attainable, please disregard the fact that they have reached 86 wins once in the previous eight seasons.)
Entering play on Monday, they are 4 1/2 games out of a wild-card spot. The season says they are just another .500 club that is destined to miss the postseason, and yet there is a path back to the playoffs. This path is too small for an 18-wheeler. It may not even fit a 10-speed bicycle, but there is a way. A plausible one.
Of course, after play Monday they are now 5 1/2 games out of the final wild-card spot following a 4-0 loss at home against the Angels.
Since MLB expanded its playoff field to include three wild-card teams, in 2022, the lowest win total to make it in was 84, by both Miami and Arizona the following year. That was the same year the Diamondbacks upset their way to the World Series where they lost to, you may remember, the Rangers.
It’s doubtful 84 wins will be enough to make the playoffs in this current American League, the state of which is so weak it could still save the Rangers. To be on the safe side, the Rangers need 86 wins for a realistic shot of securing one of the three wild-card spots.
Looking down at the Rangers from high above Globe Life Mall, an 86-win season should be attainable.
Their pitching and fielding remain the best in Major League Baseball. If those facets are two-thirds of the game, that should be enough to compensate for the other third that is inconsistent, frustrating and not good.
From field level, an 86-win season feels like a swim across the Pacific Ocean.
It’s nearly September, and don’t expect the Rangers’ offense in the final month of the season to be that much better than it’s been in the first five. On Monday night, they came up with five singles and zero runs.
The loss of second baseman Marcus Semien to what looks like a regular season-ending foot injury sustained on Sunday is a punch to the face and stomach for an offense that has been OFF all season. Bochy said Monday that the second baseman is now a platoon situation.
To reach 86, the Rangers will need to finish 20-10. That would push them to 86-76; they haven’t been 10 games above .500 since the final day of the 2023 regular season.
The highest they have been above .500 this season is 56-50, achieved on July 27. After their usual what-goes-up-must-come-down routine that has defined their season, they are once again flat, but not flatlined.
They have 10 three-game series remaining, five at home and five on the road. They have to average “taking two outta 3” the rest of the way. This includes series against the Astros (twice), Brewers and Mets; the Rangers are not likely to win all of those series.
They will need at least two sweeps. They will need to find road religion. At 26-40, the Rangers’ road win total is tied for the second-worst mark in baseball.
This is their path.
“This is the fun part of the game, at this stage of the season, because you’re playing meaningful games,” Bochy said. “Where we’re at, we’ll take a little help. That doesn’t hurt, either.”
To reach the magical 86, they’re going to need to have their best stretch of the season, and some help, too.
This story was originally published August 25, 2025 at 7:34 PM.
