As college football changes, TCU prepares accordingly — including a Big Ten scenario
Just in case the opportunity presents itself, TCU had discussions with leaders of the Big 10 during the offseason. Nothing formal.
According to people familiar with the conversations, the Big 10 outlined items for TCU to target to make itself an attractive candidate when/if there is major conference realignment again.
A lot will need to happen to make this potential move possible, but it’s a scenario TCU must prepare for just in case.
As long as TCU is committed to investing in athletics as a primary means to market itself, the safest way to ensure a long-term future in major college athletics is with the Big 10 or the SEC. The Big 12 is stable, but the Big 10 and SEC (not the NCAA) currently run big time college sports.
Despite a long list of achievements accumulated since 2000 that should make its place in college football secure, TCU is never done needing to prove it belongs. It has little to do with winning games, and everything to do with enrollment and alumni base. It’s why a Rutgers, Indiana, Maryland, Mississippi State and several other schools with lesser resumes don’t have to worry about conference shuffling.
The 2024 college football season is here, and TCU’s goal is to contend for a Big 12 title, a spot in the newly expanded playoff bracket, while continually planning for a future that it can’t influence.
Waiting on the ACC (and Notre Dame)
The death of the Pac-12 Conference forced a lot of people in college athletics to ask themselves, “What are we doing?” The easy answer is looking out for themselves, and squeezing as much money out of FOX, NBC, CBS and ESPN.
The new mega conference model is the creation of ratings-craved network executives, and college athletic leadership that function more like CEOs, or presidents of professional sports teams.
The next move in all of this expansion/consolidation is whatever happens to the ACC. And, Notre Dame.
Notre Dame has become Harry and Meghan; they’re no longer royalty, but they can get into any room in the world. The Big 10 covets the famously independent Catholic university that is a member of the ACC in all sports but football and hockey. By remaining independent, Notre Dame is giving up some money to retain its reputation as the one football team that can do whatever it wants.
The Big 10 will wait, but not forever. As Notre Dame admires its own reflection, the ACC fights with its own members to remain intact. Both Florida State and Clemson have sued the ACC, essentially to force the league to let both out of the grant of rights contract that runs through 2036.
Leadership from the Big 10 and SEC have stated publicly they are not interested in expanding. But if/when the SEC or Big 10 expand, North Carolina will be the priority along with Clemson and Florida State. Virginia, Stanford, Miami and Duke are in this conversation, too.
This expansion may not happen in a year or two, but given the way major college sports have evolved since 1990 it’s hard to see this current model lasting more than five years.
Why would the Big 10 even look at TCU?
On first, second and third glance, there is no reason why a conference that loaded up on big universities would be interested in a small, private school. The conference already has two privates schools — Northwestern and USC — and adding another appears counter to its desires.
The most attractive detail to TCU for the Big 10 is location. The Big 10 is the only one of the four major conferences without a member institution in Texas. Assuming that neither UT nor A&M is interested in leaving the SEC, that would leave the Big 10 to consider other Texas options.
When TCU and Big 10 officials met earlier this year, the conference outlined a few items that could potentially help TCU’s case, just in case. TCU has made it known for a while it aspires to reach an enrollment of 15,000. It currently features an undergraduate enrollment of 10,500. The Big 10 views this as a positive trend.
Another next step the Big 10 needs is for TCU to reach “R1” status. For the uninitiated, the Carnegie Classification of Institutions of Higher Education tiers schools based on research — R1, R2 and R3. This is based on research, and doctoral candidates, the school produces.
TCU is currently an R2 university. Moving up to R1 is a priority, but it takes time, and, naturally, money.
Research, and doctoral candidates, have zero to do with athletics, and everything to do with perception. All 18 Big 10 schools are listed as R1.
What would need to happen for TCU to move again?
Since the 16-team SEC and Big 10 are running things, one or the other must make expansion a priority. If both conferences desire to go to 20 schools, there will be a need. Assume Florida State “partners” with Clemson, and North Carolina with Virginia, as the top four candidates to either league (all four are R1 schools). That leaves two coveted spots.
Because of its academic standing and status as one of the top Olympic sport athletic departments in the nation, Stanford will command attention. That would potentially leave TCU, Miami and a handful of others in a Hunger Games of musical chairs.
There is little chance the SEC would want another team in Texas.
Because of its size, the best way for TCU to be in this conversation is to just keep winning, and play relevant games into November.
(Don’t forget about the Big 12)
Under commissioner Brett Yormark, a league that flirted with death is now as stable as any conference not named the SEC or Big 10. He has been aggressive in adding schools, and candid about trying to add more. If the ACC cracks, his phone will be active.
It’s no secret he believes the best way to ensure the Big 12’s overall health is to make it the best basketball league in the nation, which it is, and to be a firm No. 3 in football. With media rights money to the Big 10 and SEC nearly doubling that of the Big 12 and ACC, he has to be creative to find ways to get on the same field as those leagues.
The SEC and Big 10 exert most of the power, and he’s done the best he can to keep his league in this shrinking equation.
For now, with access to the playoff, the Big 12 is fine and so is TCU’s place in it.
As always, TCU is never “done” and all it can do is win, and prepare, just in case.
